Fiorentina
vs
Como
Garuda Lions Prediction: Como
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Fiorentina vs Como overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fiorentina vs Como
| Probability | Fiorentina | Draw | Como |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.4% | 23.4% | 42.2% |
| Market | 27.8% | 25.8% | 46.4% |
| Final | 29.4% | 25.2% | 45.4% |
| Edge | +6.6% | -2.4% | -4.2% |
Why Como
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Fiorentina vs Como match preview
Fiorentina faces Como in a Serie A matchup with contrasting recent forms. Fiorentina has recorded two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Como has been more consistent, achieving four wins and two draws in the same period. The probabilities suggest that Como has a stronger chance of winning at 47%, compared to Fiorentina's 28%. The expected goals indicate a potential scoring advantage for Como, with 2.19 expected compared to Fiorentina's 1.68.
Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 1-2 in favor of Como, with a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, each at 74%. In their last five encounters, Como has the upper hand with three wins against Fiorentina's two, indicating a competitive history between the two sides.
Fiorentina and Como team news
Fiorentina news
- A. Atta — abdominal strain
- F. Mastantuono — broken hand
- F. Parisi — knee injury
- L. Ranieri — leg injury
- R. Sottil — back injury
Como news
- A. Diao — thigh injury
- M. Kean — leg injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fiorentina and Como expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.03
Fiorentina and Como attack and defence ratings
Fiorentina
Como
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fiorentina vs Como markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Como | 45.4% | 2.20 | -4.2% | 2.12 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fiorentina | 29.4% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Como | 45.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.4% |
| No | 23.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Como win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.2% | |
| Loss | 57.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.6% |
| 1-2 | 7.6% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Fiorentina vs Como stats
Fiorentina and Como recent form
| Fiorentina |
LDWWLL |
| Como |
LDLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Fiorentina and Como season so far
Fiorentina record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
Como record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Fiorentina vs Como head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Como | Fiorentina | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-27 | Fiorentina | Como | Coppa Italia | 1-3 |
| 2025-09-21 | Fiorentina | Como | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2025-02-16 | Fiorentina | Como | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2024-11-24 | Como | Fiorentina | Serie A | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fiorentina vs Como odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.0%, draw 25.7%, away 46.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.54 | 3.81 | 2.12 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.35 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.11 |
| Marathonbet | 3.44 | 3.70 | 2.06 |
| Pinnacle | 3.43 | 3.77 | 2.10 |
| SBO | 3.00 | 3.28 | 2.04 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| pinnacle | 3.36 | 3.70 | 2.07 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
36 snapshots recorded, from .