AC Milan
vs
Atalanta
Garuda Lions Prediction: AC Milan
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
AC Milan vs Atalanta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AC Milan vs Atalanta
| Probability | AC Milan | Draw | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.1% | 23.8% | 21.1% |
| Market | 53.5% | 25.1% | 21.5% |
| Final | 53.9% | 24.8% | 21.4% |
| Edge | +1.6% | -1.2% | -0.4% |
Why AC Milan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.33.
Best available price on the pick: 1.86, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
AC Milan vs Atalanta match preview
AC Milan faces Atalanta in a Serie A clash with AC Milan holding a 51% probability of winning, while Atalanta stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of AC Milan, with a 10% chance of this outcome. The expected goals are 1.79 for AC Milan and 1.10 for Atalanta, suggesting a potentially competitive match.
In terms of recent form, AC Milan has recorded two draws, one win, and two losses in their last six matches, while Atalanta has bounced back with three wins following three losses. The head-to-head record shows AC Milan has not won any of the last six encounters, managing two draws and suffering four defeats against Atalanta. Both teams have a 58% probability of scoring, indicating an open contest.
AC Milan and Atalanta team news
AC Milan news
- A. Saelemaekers — ankle injury
- M. Gabbia — thigh injury
Atalanta news
- E. Elmas — suspended
- F. Kessie — calf injury
- G. Raspadori — thigh injury
- G. Scalvini — thigh injury
- I. Hien — muscle injury
- K. Sulemana — knee injury
- O. Kossounou — thigh injury
- R. Bellanova — thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AC Milan and Atalanta expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.51
AC Milan and Atalanta attack and defence ratings
AC Milan
Atalanta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
AC Milan vs Atalanta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 53.9% | 1.86 | +1.6% | 1.86 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.9% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 53.9% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Atalanta | 21.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% |
| No | 33.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Milan win | 35.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 44.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.1% |
AC Milan vs Atalanta stats
AC Milan and Atalanta recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AC Milan and Atalanta season so far
AC Milan record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atalanta record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
AC Milan vs Atalanta head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | AC Milan | Atalanta | Serie A | 2-3 |
| 2025-10-28 | Atalanta | AC Milan | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-20 | AC Milan | Atalanta | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-06 | Atalanta | AC Milan | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-02-25 | AC Milan | Atalanta | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-01-10 | AC Milan | Atalanta | Coppa Italia | 1-2 |
| 2023-12-09 | Atalanta | AC Milan | Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2023-02-26 | AC Milan | Atalanta | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2022-08-21 | Atalanta | AC Milan | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2022-05-15 | AC Milan | Atalanta | Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AC Milan vs Atalanta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.6%, draw 25.2%, away 22.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 3.94 | 4.47 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.75 | 4.30 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.75 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 3.85 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 3.88 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 3.80 | 4.53 |
| SBO | 1.78 | 3.34 | 3.74 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| pinnacle | 1.85 | 3.65 | 4.16 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
36 snapshots recorded, from .