Monza
vs
Cagliari
Garuda Lions Prediction: Monza
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Monza vs Cagliari overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monza vs Cagliari
| Probability | Monza | Draw | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.8% | 25.4% | 28.7% |
| Market | 39.6% | 30.0% | 30.4% |
| Final | 41.2% | 28.8% | 30.0% |
| Edge | +6.2% | -4.5% | -1.7% |
Why Monza
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.54.
- The market prices Monza below the model: +6.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.49, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Monza vs Cagliari match preview
Monza will host Cagliari in an intriguing Serie A matchup, with our model giving Monza a 42% chance of winning, while Cagliari has a 30% likelihood of securing victory. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Monza, with an expected goals tally of 1.96 for Monza and 1.55 for Cagliari. The model also suggests a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 69%.
In terms of recent form, Monza has recorded a mixed bag of results with one win in their last six matches, while Cagliari has shown slightly better form with three wins in their last six. The head-to-head record in their last four encounters favors Cagliari slightly, with two wins compared to Monza's one. The confidence grade for this match is B, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Monza and Cagliari team news
Monza news
- I. Toure — contusion
- J. Ziolkowski — foot injury
- L. Lucchesi — suspended
- M. Pessina — knee injury
- O. Forson — injury
Cagliari news
- M. Felici — knee injury
- R. Idrissi — knee injury
- Y. Trepy — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monza and Cagliari expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.50
Monza and Cagliari attack and defence ratings
Monza
Cagliari
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Monza vs Cagliari markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monza | 41.2% | 2.43 | +6.2% | 2.49 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.2% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monza | 41.2% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Cagliari | 30.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.4% |
| No | 30.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monza win | 27.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 54.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.0% |
Monza vs Cagliari stats
Monza and Cagliari recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monza and Cagliari season so far
Monza record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Cagliari record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Monza vs Cagliari head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-30 | Cagliari | Monza | Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2025-01-05 | Monza | Cagliari | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2024-03-16 | Monza | Cagliari | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-11-26 | Cagliari | Monza | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monza vs Cagliari odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.7%, draw 30.1%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.49 | 3.26 | 3.26 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.25 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.42 | 3.16 | 3.16 |
| Pinnacle | 2.47 | 3.19 | 3.17 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 2.98 | 2.74 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.18 | 3.46 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
36 snapshots recorded, from .