Juventus
vs
Lazio
Garuda Lions Prediction: Juventus
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Juventus vs Lazio overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Juventus vs Lazio
| Probability | Juventus | Draw | Lazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.7% | 19.8% | 9.4% |
| Market | 57.2% | 24.7% | 18.1% |
| Final | 60.6% | 23.5% | 15.9% |
| Edge | +13.5% | -4.9% | -8.7% |
Why Juventus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 0.82.
- The market prices Juventus below the model: +13.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Juventus vs Lazio match preview
Juventus faces Lazio in their upcoming Serie A match, with a strong probability of 61% favoring Juventus for a win according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-0, with Juventus expected to generate 2.43 expected goals compared to Lazio's 0.81. Recent form shows Juventus with a mixed record of D-W-W-L-D-W, while Lazio comes in strong with a sequence of W-W-D-W-W-W.
The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 63%, indicating a potential for a high-scoring affair, while both teams to score has a probability of 52%. The head-to-head record over the last six encounters is balanced, with each team securing two wins and two draws. With a confidence grade of A, this matchup promises to be competitive.
Juventus and Lazio team news
Juventus news
- A. Milik — inactive
- J. Ekhator — muscle injury
- K. Grabara — knee injury
- K. Thuram — knee injury
- K. Yildiz — foot injury
- M. Locatelli — knee injury
Lazio news
- A. Furlanetto — knee injury
- A. Gudmundsson — shoulder injury
- A. Marusic — muscle injury
- M. Cancellieri — leg injury
- N. Rovella — calf injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Juventus and Lazio expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.23
Juventus and Lazio attack and defence ratings
Juventus
Lazio
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Juventus vs Lazio markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventus | 60.6% | 1.65 | +13.5% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.1% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventus | 60.6% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Lazio | 15.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% |
| No | 47.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win | 49.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 29.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-1 | 9.4% |
Juventus vs Lazio stats
Juventus and Lazio recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Juventus and Lazio season so far
Juventus record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Lazio record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Juventus vs Lazio head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Juventus | Lazio | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Lazio | Juventus | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-10 | Lazio | Juventus | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-19 | Juventus | Lazio | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-23 | Lazio | Juventus | Coppa Italia | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-02 | Juventus | Lazio | Coppa Italia | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-30 | Lazio | Juventus | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-16 | Juventus | Lazio | Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2023-04-08 | Lazio | Juventus | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2023-02-02 | Juventus | Lazio | Coppa Italia | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Juventus vs Lazio odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.1%, draw 24.8%, away 18.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 4.04 | 5.69 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.80 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.85 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 3.85 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.98 | 5.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.91 | 5.29 |
| SBO | 1.66 | 3.37 | 4.39 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| pinnacle | 1.64 | 3.87 | 5.34 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
36 snapshots recorded, from .