Udinese
vs
Lecce
Garuda Lions Prediction: Udinese
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Udinese vs Lecce overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Udinese vs Lecce
| Probability | Udinese | Draw | Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.7% | 22.7% | 20.6% |
| Market | 52.3% | 26.5% | 21.3% |
| Final | 53.4% | 25.6% | 21.1% |
| Edge | +4.4% | -3.7% | -0.7% |
Why Udinese
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.38.
- The market prices Udinese below the model: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Udinese vs Lecce match preview
Udinese faces Lecce in their upcoming Serie A match, with Udinese holding a 53% probability of winning, while Lecce stands at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Udinese, with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for Udinese are 2.43, compared to Lecce's 1.31, indicating a stronger offensive performance anticipated from the home side.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Udinese recording three losses followed by two wins and a draw, while Lecce has alternated between losses and one win. In their last six encounters, Udinese has dominated with four wins, one draw, and one win for Lecce. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 68%.
Udinese and Lecce team news
Udinese news
- A. Zanoli — muscle injury
- I. Gueye — ankle injury
- J. Abankwah — injury
- J. Piotrowski — heart problems
- N. Zaniolo — thigh injury
- V. Bayo — thigh injury
Lecce news
- I. Ilic — thigh injury
- M. Berisha — lacking match fitness
- N. Stulic — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Udinese and Lecce expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.69
Udinese and Lecce attack and defence ratings
Udinese
Lecce
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Udinese vs Lecce markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Udinese | 53.4% | 1.87 | +4.4% | 1.92 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.3% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Udinese | 53.4% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Lecce | 21.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.0% |
| No | 31.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Udinese win | 36.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 43.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 3-1 | 7.1% |
Udinese vs Lecce stats
Udinese and Lecce recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Udinese and Lecce season so far
Udinese record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
Lecce record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Udinese vs Lecce head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Lecce | Udinese | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Udinese | Lecce | Serie A | 3-2 |
| 2025-02-21 | Lecce | Udinese | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-05 | Udinese | Lecce | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-13 | Lecce | Udinese | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2023-10-23 | Udinese | Lecce | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-28 | Lecce | Udinese | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2022-12-23 | Udinese | Lecce | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
| 2022-11-04 | Udinese | Lecce | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2020-07-29 | Udinese | Lecce | Serie A | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Udinese vs Lecce odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.2%, draw 26.3%, away 22.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.72 | 4.63 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 3.55 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.87 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.92 | 3.55 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 3.62 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 3.69 | 4.60 |
| SBO | 1.86 | 3.14 | 3.66 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| pinnacle | 1.85 | 3.64 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
36 snapshots recorded, from .