Roma vs Genoa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Roma vs Genoa
| Probability | Roma | Draw | Genoa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.0% | 23.1% | 19.8% |
| Market | 60.6% | 23.8% | 15.7% |
| Final | 59.7% | 23.6% | 16.7% |
| Edge | -3.5% | -0.6% | +4.2% |
Why Roma
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.31.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Roma and Genoa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.57
Roma and Genoa attack and defence ratings
Roma
Genoa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Roma vs Genoa: result vs prediction
Roma 2 – 0 Genoa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Roma vs Genoa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 59.7% | 1.68 | -3.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 59.7% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Genoa | 16.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.1% |
| No | 32.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win | 36.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 43.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 7.2% |
Roma vs Genoa stats
Roma and Genoa recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Roma and Genoa going into this match
Roma record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Genoa record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Roma vs Genoa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Genoa | Roma | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-29 | Roma | Genoa | Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2025-01-17 | Roma | Genoa | Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2024-09-15 | Genoa | Roma | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-05-19 | Roma | Genoa | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-28 | Genoa | Roma | Serie A | 4-1 |
| 2023-01-12 | Roma | Genoa | Coppa Italia | 1-0 |
| 2022-02-05 | Roma | Genoa | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2021-11-21 | Genoa | Roma | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2021-03-07 | Roma | Genoa | Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Roma vs Genoa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.5%, draw 23.4%, away 15.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 4.17 | 6.33 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 4.70 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.57 | 4.05 | 6.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 3.99 | 6.28 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 4.08 | 5.99 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
| pinnacle | 1.30 | 5.57 | 9.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
29 snapshots recorded, from .