Roma
vs
Real Madrid
3 – 4 Full time
| 17′ | Manu KonéNiccolò Pisilli | ||
| 20′ | Marten de Roon | ||
| 25′ | Kylian Mbappé | ||
| 45′ | Paulo DybalaRodrigo Mora | ||
| 51′ | Donyell Malen | ||
| 57′ | Donyell Malen | ||
| 59′ | Denzel DumfriesArda Güler | ||
| 59′ | ViníciusEndrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa | ||
| 60′ | Gianluca Mancini | ||
| 63′ | Matias SouleLorenzo Pellegrini | ||
| 63′ | Gianluca ManciniLeonardo Balerdi | ||
| 69′ | Wesley Vinícius França Lima | ||
| 70′ | Aurelien TchouameniBernardo Silva | ||
| 78′ | Marc CucurellaÁlvaro Fernández Carreras | ||
| 78′ | Yan DiomandeCarlos Espí | ||
| 81′ | Mario HermosoKonstantinos Koulierakis | ||
| 83′ | Carlos Espí | ||
| 85′ | Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa | ||
| 89′ | Lorenzo Pellegrini | ||
| 90′ | Antonio Rüdiger | ||
| 90′ | Álvaro Fernández Carreras |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 4 |
| 469 | Accurate passes | 385 |
Roma vs Real Madrid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Roma vs Real Madrid
| Probability | Roma | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.1% | 23.6% | 23.3% |
| Market | 26.3% | 24.1% | 49.6% |
| Final | 33.0% | 23.9% | 43.1% |
| Edge | +6.7% | -0.1% | -6.6% |
Why Real Madrid
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Roma and Real Madrid expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.27
Roma and Real Madrid attack and defence ratings
Roma
Real Madrid
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Roma vs Real Madrid: result vs prediction
Roma 3 – 4 Real Madrid
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- Lens v Sporting CP — match page
- Sabah FA vs Slavia Praha — team news & stats
- Arsenal vs Lille
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven — match page
- Inter vs Club Brugge KV — team news & stats
- Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
- Villarreal v Napoli — match page
- Galatasaray vs Barcelona — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Roma vs Real Madrid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 43.1% | 2.32 | -6.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 33.0% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Real Madrid | 43.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% |
| No | 36.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 10.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.4% | |
| Loss | 76.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
Roma vs Real Madrid stats
Roma and Real Madrid recent form
| Roma |
DDWDWW |
| Real Madrid |
WLWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Roma vs Real Madrid head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-27 | Roma | Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League | 0-2 |
| 2018-09-19 | Real Madrid | Roma | UEFA Champions League | 3-0 |
| 2018-08-08 | Real Madrid | Roma | International Champions Cup | 2-1 |
| 2016-03-08 | Real Madrid | Roma | UEFA Champions League | 2-0 |
| 2016-02-17 | Roma | Real Madrid | UEFA Champions League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Roma vs Real Madrid odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.3%, draw 24.1%, away 49.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.72 | 4.09 | 1.99 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.70 | 3.90 | 1.91 |
| Betano | 3.65 | 4.15 | 1.95 |
| Betfair | 3.75 | 3.90 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.60 | 4.10 | 1.93 |
| Marathonbet | 3.68 | 4.05 | 1.97 |
| Pinnacle | 3.84 | 4.00 | 1.93 |
| SBO | 3.16 | 3.72 | 1.95 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.75 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .