Roma
vs
Real Madrid
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Madrid
1 – 2 Predicted score · 5% model probability
Roma vs Real Madrid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Roma vs Real Madrid
| Probability | Roma | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.9% | 21.6% | 19.4% |
| Market | 25.4% | 24.0% | 50.6% |
| Final | 33.8% | 23.4% | 42.8% |
| Edge | +33.5% | -2.3% | -31.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.94, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Roma vs Real Madrid match preview
In the upcoming UEFA Champions League match, Roma will host Real Madrid with kickoff set for October 14, 2026. The model indicates a 35% probability of a Roma victory, while Real Madrid holds a 42% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2 in favor of Real Madrid, with a 5% likelihood.
Both teams show strong attacking potential, with an expected goals tally of 2.22 for Roma and 1.23 for Real Madrid. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 67%, and there is a 64% chance that both teams will score. Roma's recent form includes four wins and two draws, while Real Madrid has experienced mixed results with two wins and three losses in their last six matches.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Roma and Real Madrid expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.45
Roma and Real Madrid attack and defence ratings
Roma
Real Madrid
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Roma vs Real Madrid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 42.8% | 2.33 | -31.2% | 1.94 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 33.8% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Real Madrid | 42.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.0% |
| No | 36.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 8.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 11.4% | |
| Loss | 80.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.8% |
Roma vs Real Madrid stats
Roma and Real Madrid recent form
| Roma |
DWDWWW |
| Real Madrid |
LWWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Roma vs Real Madrid head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Roma vs Real Madrid odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.4%, draw 24.0%, away 50.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.88 | 4.11 | 1.94 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 3.60 | 4.10 | 1.83 |
| Betano | 3.95 | 3.85 | 1.87 |
| Betfair | 3.75 | 3.90 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 3.70 | 4.00 | 1.89 |
| Marathonbet | 3.78 | 4.00 | 1.89 |
| Pinnacle | 3.70 | 4.05 | 1.87 |
| SBO | 3.13 | 3.50 | 1.84 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.75 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .