Atletico Madrid
vs
Manchester United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Madrid
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
| Probability | Atletico Madrid | Draw | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.3% | 22.5% | 25.2% |
| Market | 44.7% | 25.0% | 30.4% |
| Final | 46.6% | 24.4% | 29.1% |
| Edge | +7.6% | -2.4% | -5.2% |
Why Atletico Madrid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Atletico Madrid below the model: +7.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United match preview
Atletico Madrid hosts Manchester United in the UEFA Champions League with a kickoff scheduled for October 13, 2026. The model gives Atletico Madrid a 52% chance of winning, while Manchester United has a 25% probability of securing a victory, and a draw stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Atletico, with an expected goals tally of 2.13 for Atletico Madrid and 1.45 for Manchester United.
In terms of recent form, Atletico Madrid has recorded three wins followed by two losses and another win, while Manchester United's latest results include two draws, two losses, and two wins. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match is 69%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 68%. The confidence grade for these predictions is A.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Madrid and Manchester United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.59
Atletico Madrid and Manchester United attack and defence ratings
Atletico Madrid
Manchester United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 46.6% | 2.15 | +7.6% | 2.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.7% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 46.6% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Manchester United | 29.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% |
| No | 31.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Madrid win | 31.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 47.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United stats
Atletico Madrid and Manchester United recent form
| Atletico Madrid |
WWWLLW |
| Manchester United |
DLLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.7%, draw 25.0%, away 30.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.24 | 3.94 | 3.16 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.75 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.17 | 3.85 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.18 | 3.84 | 3.08 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 3.83 | 3.20 |
| SBO | 2.02 | 3.41 | 2.77 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .