Atletico Madrid
vs
Manchester United
2 – 0 Full time
| 1′ | Pablo Barrios Rivas | ||
| 37′ | Diego Pablo Simeone | ||
| 52′ | Marcus Rashford | ||
| 60′ | Pablo Barrios RivasMarc Pubill | ||
| 61′ | Lee Kang-InJonathan David | ||
| 66′ | Youri TielemansJoshua Zirkzee | ||
| 66′ | Carlos BalebaMason Mount | ||
| 66′ | Marcus RashfordAmad Diallo | ||
| 71′ | Alejandro Baena RodríguezAdemola Lookman | ||
| 71′ | Julián ÁlvarezMorten Hjulmand | ||
| 74′ | Leny Yoro | ||
| 79′ | Ademola Lookman | ||
| 80′ | Ayden HeavenHarry Maguire | ||
| 80′ | Bruno FernandesMatheus Cunha | ||
| 88′ | Giuliano Simeone BaldiniRobin Le Normand | ||
| 88′ | Robin Le Normand |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 58 | Possession % | 42 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 2 |
| 512 | Accurate passes | 313 |
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
| Probability | Atletico Madrid | Draw | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.5% | 21.8% | 21.7% |
| Market | 49.6% | 25.3% | 25.2% |
| Final | 51.3% | 24.4% | 24.3% |
| Edge | +1.7% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
Why Atletico Madrid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Madrid and Manchester United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.57
Atletico Madrid and Manchester United attack and defence ratings
Atletico Madrid
Manchester United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: result vs prediction
Atletico Madrid 2 – 0 Manchester United
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 51.3% | 1.95 | +1.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.2% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 51.3% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Manchester United | 24.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% |
| No | 33.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Madrid win | 35.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 43.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | 9.3% | |
| 2-0 | 7.0% |
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United stats
Atletico Madrid and Manchester United recent form
| Atletico Madrid |
WWWWLL |
| Manchester United |
DDLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Manchester United | Atletico Madrid | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2022-07-30 | Atletico Madrid | Manchester United | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2022-03-15 | Manchester United | Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League | 0-1 |
| 2022-02-23 | Atletico Madrid | Manchester United | UEFA Champions League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.6%, draw 25.3%, away 25.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.98 | 3.90 | 3.94 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 3.95 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 3.84 | 3.88 |
| Pinnacle | 1.96 | 3.80 | 3.93 |
| SBO | 1.92 | 3.61 | 3.54 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .