Manchester United
vs
Tottenham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Manchester United
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Manchester United vs Tottenham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Manchester United vs Tottenham
| Probability | Manchester United | Draw | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.4% | 19.9% | 18.7% |
| Market | 55.9% | 22.7% | 21.4% |
| Final | 57.3% | 22.0% | 20.7% |
| Edge | +5.5% | -2.8% | -2.7% |
Why Manchester United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.43.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Manchester United below the model: +5.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.76, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Manchester United vs Tottenham match preview
In the upcoming Premier League match, Manchester United hosts Tottenham with a kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model indicates a strong probability of a Manchester United victory at 57%, while Tottenham stands at 21%, and a draw is at 22%. The expected goals suggest Manchester United is likely to score 2.46, compared to Tottenham's 1.43. The most probable scoreline is 2-1, with an occurrence likelihood of 9%.
Recent form shows Manchester United with mixed results, recording two draws and a win in their last five matches, while Tottenham has struggled, with only one win in their last five outings. The model also highlights a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 71%. In their last six encounters, Manchester United has secured one win, while Tottenham has three victories and two draws.
Manchester United and Tottenham team news
Manchester United news
- A. Diallo — injury
- B. Sesko — leg injury
- K. Darlow — injury
- K. Mainoo — injury
- M. Rashford — health problems
- M. Ugarte — knee injury
- M. de Ligt — back injury
- N. Mazraoui — injury
- P. Dorgu — hamstring injury
- T. Heaton — abdominal strain
Tottenham news
- D. Kulusevski — knee injury
- M. Mudryk — ankle injury
- M. van de Ven — wrist injury
- P. Porro — muscle injury
- W. Odobert — knee injury
- X. Simons — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Manchester United and Tottenham expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.89
Manchester United and Tottenham attack and defence ratings
Manchester United
Tottenham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Manchester United vs Tottenham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester United | 57.3% | 1.75 | +5.5% | 1.76 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester United win | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester United | 57.3% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Tottenham | 20.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.3% |
| No | 28.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester United win | 41.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 38.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.6% |
| 1-1 | 7.7% | |
| 3-1 | 7.4% |
Manchester United vs Tottenham stats
Manchester United and Tottenham recent form
| Manchester United |
DLLWDW |
| Tottenham |
LLDDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Manchester United and Tottenham season so far
Manchester United record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Tottenham record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
Manchester United vs Tottenham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Manchester United | Tottenham | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Tottenham | Manchester United | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-21 | Tottenham | Manchester United | UEFA Europa League | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-16 | Tottenham | Manchester United | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-12-19 | Tottenham | Manchester United | League Cup | 4-3 |
| 2024-09-29 | Manchester United | Tottenham | Premier League | 0-3 |
| 2024-01-14 | Manchester United | Tottenham | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2023-08-19 | Tottenham | Manchester United | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2023-04-27 | Tottenham | Manchester United | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2022-10-19 | Manchester United | Tottenham | Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Manchester United vs Tottenham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.9%, draw 22.7%, away 21.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 4.31 | 4.67 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 4.20 | 4.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 4.30 | 4.37 |
| SBO | 1.68 | 3.69 | 3.83 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
54 snapshots recorded, from .