Tottenham
vs
Aston Villa
2 – 3 Full time
| 19′ | Pedro PorroArchie Gray | ||
| 45′ | Johan Manzambi | ||
| 45′ | Jan Paul van Hecke | ||
| 45′ | Aaron Wan-BissakaMatty Cash | ||
| 45′ | Mateus FernandesMohammed Kudus | ||
| 46′ | Nicolas Jackson | ||
| 66′ | Dominic SolankeJames Maddison | ||
| 67′ | Nicolas Jackson | ||
| 72′ | Johan ManzambiGeorge Hemmings | ||
| 79′ | Emiliano Buendía | ||
| 84′ | John McGinnRoss Barkley | ||
| 84′ | Boubacar KamaraIbrahim Mbaye | ||
| 84′ | Rodrigo BentancurLucas Bergvall | ||
| 84′ | Sandro TonaliConor Gallagher | ||
| 86′ | Conor Gallagher | ||
| 88′ | Nicolas JacksonTammy Abraham | ||
| 90′ | Matty Cash | ||
| 90′ | Unai Emery Etxegoien | ||
| 90′ | Jan Paul van Hecke |
Match stats
| 20 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 64 | Possession % | 36 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 5 |
| 498 | Accurate passes | 280 |
Tottenham vs Aston Villa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tottenham vs Aston Villa
| Probability | Tottenham | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.8% | 24.0% | 34.3% |
| Market | 48.9% | 26.4% | 24.7% |
| Final | 47.1% | 25.8% | 27.1% |
| Edge | -7.1% | -2.4% | +9.6% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tottenham and Aston Villa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.63
Tottenham and Aston Villa attack and defence ratings
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tottenham vs Aston Villa: result vs prediction
Tottenham 2 – 3 Aston Villa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tottenham vs Aston Villa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tottenham | 47.1% | 2.12 | -7.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tottenham | 47.1% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Aston Villa | 27.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.4% |
| No | 27.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tottenham win | 23.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 58.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Tottenham vs Aston Villa stats
Tottenham and Aston Villa recent form
| Tottenham |
LDDLWL |
| Aston Villa |
WLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tottenham vs Aston Villa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Aston Villa | Tottenham | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Tottenham | Aston Villa | England FA Cup | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-19 | Tottenham | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-16 | Aston Villa | Tottenham | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-09 | Aston Villa | Tottenham | England FA Cup | 2-1 |
| 2024-11-03 | Tottenham | Aston Villa | Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2024-03-10 | Aston Villa | Tottenham | Premier League | 0-4 |
| 2023-11-26 | Tottenham | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-05-13 | Aston Villa | Tottenham | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2023-01-01 | Tottenham | Aston Villa | Premier League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tottenham vs Aston Villa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.9%, draw 26.4%, away 24.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.76 | 3.98 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.75 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 3.66 | 3.88 |
| Pinnacle | 1.96 | 3.63 | 4.00 |
| SBO | 1.99 | 3.18 | 3.21 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
27 snapshots recorded, from .