Manchester City
vs
Sunderland
5 – 3 Full time
| 8′ | Dayann Methalie | ||
| 9′ | Enzo Fernández | ||
| 12′ | Brian Brobbey | ||
| 29′ | Rayan Cherki | ||
| 33′ | Brian Brobbey | ||
| 43′ | Antoine Semenyo | ||
| 57′ | Antoine Semenyo | ||
| 59′ | Brian Brobbey | ||
| 60′ | Nilson AnguloMalick Fofana | ||
| 68′ | Noah SadikiWilson Isidor | ||
| 75′ | Iliman NdiayeJeremy Doku | ||
| 79′ | Thomas MeunierTrai Hume | ||
| 81′ | Erling Haaland | ||
| 85′ | Rayan CherkiNico O'Reilly |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 55 | Possession % | 45 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Saves | 1 |
| 403 | Accurate passes | 312 |
Manchester City vs Sunderland overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Manchester City vs Sunderland
| Probability | Manchester City | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.3% | 21.9% | 13.8% |
| Market | 71.5% | 17.6% | 10.9% |
| Final | 69.7% | 18.7% | 11.7% |
| Edge | -7.2% | +4.3% | +2.9% |
Why Manchester City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Manchester City and Sunderland expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.04
Manchester City and Sunderland attack and defence ratings
Manchester City
Sunderland
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Manchester City vs Sunderland: result vs prediction
Manchester City 5 – 3 Sunderland
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Manchester City vs Sunderland markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester City | 69.7% | 1.44 | -7.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.3% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester City win | 42.2% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester City | 69.7% |
| Draw | 18.7% | |
| Sunderland | 11.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.0% |
| No | 44.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 30.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester City win | 42.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 35.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.3% |
| 1-1 | 10.3% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Manchester City vs Sunderland stats
Manchester City and Sunderland recent form
| Manchester City |
WWWWWW |
| Sunderland |
WLWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Manchester City vs Sunderland head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | Sunderland | Manchester City | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-06 | Manchester City | Sunderland | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2017-03-05 | Sunderland | Manchester City | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2016-08-13 | Manchester City | Sunderland | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2016-02-02 | Sunderland | Manchester City | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2015-12-26 | Manchester City | Sunderland | Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2015-09-22 | Sunderland | Manchester City | League Cup | 1-4 |
| 2015-01-01 | Manchester City | Sunderland | Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2014-12-03 | Sunderland | Manchester City | Premier League | 1-4 |
| 2014-04-16 | Manchester City | Sunderland | Premier League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Manchester City vs Sunderland odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 71.7%, draw 17.5%, away 10.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.37 | 5.53 | 9.45 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.25 | 8.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.25 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.37 | 5.60 | 8.75 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 5.50 | 8.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.35 | 5.45 | 9.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.34 | 5.57 | 9.01 |
| SBO | 1.32 | 4.84 | 7.05 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| mybookieag | 1.25 | 5.70 | 9.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
29 snapshots recorded, from .