Sunderland
vs
Brighton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Brighton
1 β 2 Predicted score Β· 8% model probability
Sunderland vs Brighton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sunderland vs Brighton
| Probability | Sunderland | Draw | Brighton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.3% | 23.9% | 35.8% |
| Market | 31.4% | 27.2% | 41.3% |
| Final | 33.6% | 26.4% | 40.0% |
| Edge | +8.8% | -3.3% | -5.5% |
Why Brighton
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sunderland vs Brighton match preview
Sunderland faces Brighton in a Premier League clash on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a competitive matchup, with Sunderland holding a 35% probability of winning, while Brighton is slightly favored at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. Both teams have shown strong attacking potential, with over 2.5 goals expected in 72% of scenarios and both teams to score in 73%.
Recent form shows Sunderland with a mixed record of L-W-L-W-D-W, while Brighton has been more consistent with W-W-W-D-L-W. In their last two encounters, Sunderland has not secured a win, recording 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss against Brighton. The expected goals for Sunderland are 1.84, while Brighton's expected goals stand at 1.82, indicating a closely matched contest.
Sunderland and Brighton team news
Sunderland news
- B. Brobbey β muscle injury
- D. Ballard β muscle injury
- H. Diarra β hamstring injury
- R. Mundle β knee injury
Brighton news
- E. Ferguson β ankle injury
- F. Azeez β abdominal strain
- J. Hinshelwood β injury
- K. Mitoma β hamstring injury
- M. Wieffer β knee injury
- P. Struijk β muscle injury
- S. Tzimas β knee injury
- Y. Minteh β injury
- Z. Yohanna β lacking match fitness
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sunderland and Brighton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.66
Sunderland and Brighton attack and defence ratings
Sunderland
Brighton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Arsenal vs Leeds β team news & stats
- Chelsea vs Bournemouth
- Ipswich v Fulham β match page
- Aston Villa vs Brentford β team news & stats
- Manchester United v Tottenham β match page
- Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest β team news & stats
- Hull City vs Everton
- Liverpool v Manchester City β match page
Before and after this match
Sunderland vs Brighton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brighton | 40.0% | 2.50 | -5.5% | 2.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.9% | 1.37 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.2% | 1.56 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sunderland | 33.6% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Brighton | 40.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.9% |
| No | 27.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Brighton win | 19.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.5% | |
| Loss | 64.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Sunderland vs Brighton stats
Sunderland and Brighton recent form
| Sunderland |
LWLWDW |
| Brighton |
WWWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sunderland and Brighton season so far
Sunderland record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Brighton record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sunderland vs Brighton head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Sunderland | Brighton | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Brighton | Sunderland | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2011-08-23 | Brighton | Sunderland | League Cup | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sunderland vs Brighton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.4%, draw 27.2%, away 41.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.16 | 3.58 | 2.38 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.55 | 2.36 |
| Marathonbet | 3.08 | 3.48 | 2.32 |
| Pinnacle | 3.05 | 3.52 | 2.37 |
| SBO | 2.71 | 3.07 | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
54 snapshots recorded, from .