Brighton
vs
Kauno Žalgiris
Garuda Lions Prediction: Brighton
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris
| Probability | Brighton | Draw | Kauno Žalgiris |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.1% | 24.7% | 30.2% |
| Market | 91.4% | 6.3% | 2.3% |
| Final | 79.9% | 10.9% | 9.3% |
| Edge | -46.3% | +18.4% | +27.9% |
Why Brighton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.47.
Best available price on the pick: 1.04, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris match preview
Brighton faces Kauno Žalgiris in the UEFA Europa Conference League with a kickoff scheduled for October 15, 2026. Brighton has a 45% probability of winning, while Kauno Žalgiris stands at 30%, and a draw is estimated at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Brighton, with an expected goals tally of 1.82 for Brighton and 1.47 for Kauno Žalgiris.
Both teams show promising attacking potential, as indicated by a 64% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance for both teams to score. Brighton's recent form includes three wins, one draw, and one loss, while Kauno Žalgiris has won four of their last six matches, with one draw and one loss. The confidence grade for this matchup is B, based solely on model probabilities.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Brighton and Kauno Žalgiris expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.29
Brighton and Kauno Žalgiris attack and defence ratings
Brighton
Kauno Žalgiris
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brighton | 79.9% | 1.25 | -46.3% | 1.04 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.7% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brighton | 79.9% |
| Draw | 10.9% | |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 9.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.5% |
| No | 34.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 89.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 20.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Brighton win | 25.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 54.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.3% |
Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris stats
Brighton and Kauno Žalgiris recent form
| Brighton |
WWWDLW |
| Kauno Žalgiris |
WLWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 91.4%, draw 6.3%, away 2.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.03 | 21.00 | 55.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.04 | 15.00 | 41.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.04 | 10.50 | 36.00 |
| Betano | 1.04 | 13.50 | 55.00 |
| Betfair | 1.03 | 16.00 | 51.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.04 | 15.00 | 45.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.03 | 13.50 | 38.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.03 | 22.22 | 38.05 |
| William Hill | 1.02 | 10.00 | 41.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .