Brighton
vs
Crystal Palace
Garuda Lions Prediction: Brighton
3 β 1 Predicted score Β· 8% model probability
Brighton vs Crystal Palace overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Brighton vs Crystal Palace
| Probability | Brighton | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72.3% | 14.9% | 12.8% |
| Market | 62.7% | 20.8% | 16.5% |
| Final | 65.1% | 19.3% | 15.6% |
| Edge | +9.5% | -5.9% | -3.6% |
Why Brighton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.13 vs 1.46.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Brighton below the model: +9.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.61, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace match preview
Brighton enters this match with a strong recent form, having won their last five games and drawn one, while Crystal Palace has a mixed record with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last six matches. According to our model, Brighton has a 64% probability of winning, with an expected goals tally of 3.13 compared to Crystal Palace's 1.45. The most likely scoreline predicted is 3-1 in favor of Brighton, occurring with an 8% probability.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, our model indicates an 85% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match and a 74% chance that both teams will score. Historically, in their last six encounters, Brighton has secured one win, while Crystal Palace has three wins and two draws, showcasing a competitive rivalry.
Brighton and Crystal Palace team news
Brighton news
- E. Ferguson β ankle injury
- F. Azeez β abdominal strain
- I. Osman β injury
- K. Mitoma β hamstring injury
- M. Wieffer β knee injury
- P. Struijk β rest
- S. Tzimas β knee injury
- Y. Minteh β injury
- Z. Yohanna β injury
Crystal Palace news
- A. Disasi β suspended
- B. Chilwell β injury
- C. Riad β knee injury
- D. Henderson β foot injury
- J. Mateta β hamstring injury
- T. Tomiyasu β calf injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Brighton and Crystal Palace expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.58
Brighton and Crystal Palace attack and defence ratings
Brighton
Crystal Palace
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Everton vs Chelsea
- Fulham v Hull City β match page
- Manchester City vs Ipswich β team news & stats
- Brentford vs Liverpool
- Newcastle United v Aston Villa β match page
- Bournemouth vs Sunderland β team news & stats
- Leeds v Manchester United β match page
- Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal β team news & stats
Before and after this match
Brighton vs Crystal Palace markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brighton | 65.1% | 1.54 | +9.5% | 1.61 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.2% | 1.17 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.4% | 1.34 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% | 1.18 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Brighton win | 54.9% | 1.82 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brighton | 65.1% |
| Draw | 19.3% | |
| Crystal Palace | 15.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 14.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.4% |
| No | 25.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Brighton win | 54.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.4% | |
| Loss | 27.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 7.5% |
| 2-1 | 6.9% | |
| 4-1 | 6.2% |
Brighton vs Crystal Palace stats
Brighton and Crystal Palace recent form
| Brighton |
WWWWWD |
| Crystal Palace |
LWDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Brighton and Crystal Palace season so far
Brighton record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game on the road against 2.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Crystal Palace record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Brighton | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Crystal Palace | Brighton | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-05 | Crystal Palace | Brighton | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-15 | Brighton | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2024-02-03 | Brighton | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2023-12-21 | Crystal Palace | Brighton | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2023-03-15 | Brighton | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2023-02-11 | Crystal Palace | Brighton | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2022-01-14 | Brighton | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2021-09-27 | Crystal Palace | Brighton | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.0%, draw 21.1%, away 16.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.58 | 4.72 | 5.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.75 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.45 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.55 | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.54 | 4.60 | 5.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | 4.72 | 5.91 |
| SBO | 1.48 | 4.01 | 4.94 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| sport888 | 1.61 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .