Bournemouth
vs
Sunderland
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bournemouth
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Bournemouth vs Sunderland overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bournemouth vs Sunderland
| Probability | Bournemouth | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.3% | 22.9% | 17.8% |
| Market | 45.4% | 27.6% | 27.0% |
| Final | 48.9% | 26.4% | 24.7% |
| Edge | +13.9% | -4.7% | -9.2% |
Why Bournemouth
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.14.
- The market prices Bournemouth below the model: +13.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland match preview
Bournemouth faces Sunderland in an upcoming Premier League match with Bournemouth holding a 49% probability of winning, while Sunderland stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Bournemouth, with an expected goals tally of 1.98 for Bournemouth and 1.27 for Sunderland. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with our model indicating a 64% chance that both teams will find the net.
In terms of recent form, Bournemouth has recorded two losses, one win, one draw, and another draw in their last five matches. Conversely, Sunderland's recent performances include two losses, one win, one loss, and one draw. The head-to-head record shows Bournemouth with no wins, one draw, and Sunderland with one win in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this match is A.
Bournemouth and Sunderland team news
Bournemouth news
- A. Scott — thigh injury
- E. J. Kroupi — foot injury
- J. Araujo — thigh injury
- V. Milosavljevic — injury
Sunderland news
- D. Ballard — muscle injury
- R. Mundle — knee injury
- T. Meunier — muscle injury
- W. Isidor — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bournemouth and Sunderland expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.20
Bournemouth and Sunderland attack and defence ratings
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bournemouth vs Sunderland markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 48.9% | 2.05 | +13.9% | 2.16 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.7% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 48.9% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Sunderland | 24.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% |
| No | 38.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win | 37.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 40.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.6% |
Bournemouth vs Sunderland stats
Bournemouth and Sunderland recent form
| Bournemouth |
WLLWDW |
| Sunderland |
WLLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bournemouth and Sunderland season so far
Bournemouth record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sunderland record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Bournemouth | Sunderland | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Sunderland | Bournemouth | Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2017-04-29 | Sunderland | Bournemouth | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2016-11-05 | Bournemouth | Sunderland | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2016-01-23 | Sunderland | Bournemouth | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2015-09-19 | Bournemouth | Sunderland | Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.3%, draw 27.2%, away 27.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 3.63 | 3.63 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 3.55 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.10 | 3.54 | 3.54 |
| Pinnacle | 2.16 | 3.51 | 3.51 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.11 | 3.04 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
56 snapshots recorded, from .