Leeds
vs
Manchester United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leeds
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Leeds vs Manchester United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leeds vs Manchester United
| Probability | Leeds | Draw | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 23.1% | 35.9% |
| Market | 40.5% | 26.7% | 32.8% |
| Final | 40.6% | 25.8% | 33.6% |
| Edge | +0.5% | -3.6% | +3.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.43, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Leeds vs Manchester United match preview
Leeds faces Manchester United in a Premier League clash with both teams showing mixed recent form. Leeds has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, while Manchester United has drawn three, lost two, and secured one victory in the same timeframe. The probabilities suggest a close contest, with Leeds at 38%, a draw at 25%, and Manchester United at 36%.
Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Leeds, with an expected goals tally of 1.92 for Leeds and 2.10 for Manchester United. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 78%, and both teams are expected to score 77% of the time, indicating a potentially high-scoring match.
Leeds and Manchester United team news
Leeds news
- D. James — back injury
- J. Rodon — muscle injury
- M. Joseph — knee injury
Manchester United news
- B. Sesko — leg injury
- K. Mainoo — injury
- L. Shaw — injury
- M. Ugarte — knee injury
- N. Mazraoui — injury
- P. Dorgu — hamstring injury
- T. Heaton — abdominal strain
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leeds and Manchester United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.83
Leeds and Manchester United attack and defence ratings
Leeds
Manchester United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leeds vs Manchester United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leeds | 40.6% | 2.46 | +0.5% | 2.43 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leeds | 40.6% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Manchester United | 33.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.0% |
| No | 25.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leeds win | 23.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.4% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.7% |
| 2-1 | 7.7% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Leeds vs Manchester United stats
Leeds and Manchester United recent form
| Leeds |
LDWLDD |
| Manchester United |
LDDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leeds and Manchester United season so far
Leeds record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Manchester United record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 80% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leeds vs Manchester United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Manchester United | Leeds | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-13 | Manchester United | Leeds | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-04 | Leeds | Manchester United | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-19 | Manchester United | Leeds | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2023-07-12 | Manchester United | Leeds | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-12 | Leeds | Manchester United | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2023-02-08 | Manchester United | Leeds | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2022-02-20 | Leeds | Manchester United | Premier League | 2-4 |
| 2021-08-14 | Manchester United | Leeds | Premier League | 5-1 |
| 2021-04-25 | Leeds | Manchester United | Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leeds vs Manchester United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.2%, draw 26.8%, away 33.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.43 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.55 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 3.64 | 2.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.37 | 3.56 | 3.03 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 3.18 | 2.58 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| winamax_fr | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .