Nottingham Forest
vs
Arsenal
Garuda Lions Prediction: Arsenal
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
| Probability | Nottingham Forest | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.6% | 24.4% | 48.0% |
| Market | 16.6% | 24.9% | 58.4% |
| Final | 19.4% | 24.8% | 55.8% |
| Edge | +10.9% | -0.5% | -10.4% |
Why Arsenal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal match preview
Nottingham Forest faces Arsenal in an intriguing Premier League clash. Nottingham Forest's recent form shows two losses, a win, two draws, and another loss, while Arsenal boasts a strong record with four consecutive wins following a loss. The probabilities from our model indicate a 20% chance for Nottingham Forest to win, a 24% chance for a draw, and a 56% chance for Arsenal to secure the victory.
The expected goals suggest Nottingham Forest may score 1.56, while Arsenal is projected to net 1.89. Our model predicts the most likely scoreline to be 1-2, with a 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance that both teams will score. Historically, in their last six encounters, Nottingham Forest has not won, recording zero wins, two draws, and four losses against Arsenal.
Nottingham Forest and Arsenal team news
Nottingham Forest news
- Igor Jesus — calf injury
- N. Milenkovic — knee injury
- N. Savona — knee injury
Arsenal news
- C. Tzolis — hamstring injury
- M. Zubimendi — knock
- P. Hincapie — ankle injury
- W. Saliba — back injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nottingham Forest and Arsenal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.41
Nottingham Forest and Arsenal attack and defence ratings
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 55.8% | 1.79 | -10.4% | 1.71 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nottingham Forest | 19.4% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Arsenal | 55.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.3% |
| No | 31.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win | 28.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 52.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 6.8% |
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal stats
Nottingham Forest and Arsenal recent form
| Nottingham Forest |
LLWDDL |
| Arsenal |
WWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nottingham Forest and Arsenal season so far
Nottingham Forest record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Arsenal record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Nottingham Forest | Arsenal | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Arsenal | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2025-02-26 | Nottingham Forest | Arsenal | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-23 | Arsenal | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2024-01-30 | Nottingham Forest | Arsenal | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-08-12 | Arsenal | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2023-05-20 | Nottingham Forest | Arsenal | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2022-10-30 | Arsenal | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 5-0 |
| 2022-01-09 | Nottingham Forest | Arsenal | FA Cup | 1-0 |
| 2019-09-24 | Arsenal | Nottingham Forest | League Cup | 5-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 17.2%, draw 24.6%, away 58.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.78 | 3.90 | 1.71 |
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 3.90 | 1.62 |
| BetVictor | 5.25 | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| Betano | 5.40 | 3.90 | 1.65 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 3.80 | 1.62 |
| Dafabet | 5.80 | 3.95 | 1.63 |
| Marathonbet | 5.70 | 3.84 | 1.68 |
| Pinnacle | 6.07 | 3.79 | 1.64 |
| SBO | 4.78 | 3.50 | 1.58 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 3.70 | 1.62 |
| mybookieag | 5.20 | 3.85 | 1.58 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .