Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 6
Crystal Palace
vs
Nottingham Forest
3 – 1 Full time
| 3′ | Dan Ndoye | ||
| 16′ | Jefferson Lerma | ||
| 41′ | Daichi Kamada | ||
| 45′ | Jefferson Lerma | ||
| 59′ | Yeremy Pino | ||
| 60′ | Yeremy Pino | ||
| 66′ | Xaver SchlagerIbrahim Sangaré | ||
| 72′ | Dan NdoyeCallum Hudson-Odoi | ||
| 72′ | Liam DelapChris Wood | ||
| 72′ | Jefferson LermaHonest Ahanor | ||
| 73′ | Ola Aina | ||
| 83′ | Yeremy PinoIsmaila Sarr | ||
| 83′ | Jörgen Strand LarsenEddie Nketiah | ||
| 83′ | Ola AinaArnaud Kalimuendo | ||
| 90′ | Daichi KamadaDwight McNeil | ||
| 90′ | Murillo Santiago |
Crystal Palace
39%
Draw
27%
Nottingham Forest
34%
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 24 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 43 | Possession % | 57 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 4 | Saves | 4 |
| 288 | Accurate passes | 402 |
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
| Probability | Crystal Palace | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.1% | 23.3% | 22.6% |
| Market | 34.1% | 28.5% | 37.4% |
| Final | 39.1% | 27.2% | 33.7% |
| Edge | +5.0% | -1.3% | -3.7% |
Why Crystal Palace
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Crystal Palace below our published probability: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
88%
3+ goals
68%
No goals
4%
Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest expected goals
Crystal Palace
2.04
Nottingham Forest
1.36
Total expected goals: 3.40
Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest attack and defence ratings
Crystal Palace
Attack
1.29 +29%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Nottingham Forest
Attack
1.05 +5%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: result vs prediction
Crystal Palace 3 – 1 Nottingham Forest
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crystal Palace | 39.1% | 2.56 | +5.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crystal Palace | 39.1% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Nottingham Forest | 33.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% |
| No | 33.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Crystal Palace win | 33.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 45.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.9% |
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest stats
Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest recent form
| Crystal Palace |
DWLWWL |
| Nottingham Forest |
LWDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest going into this match
Crystal Palace record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Nottingham Forest record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
0Crystal Palace wins
8Draws
2Nottingham Forest wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-05 | Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-21 | Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-30 | Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-07 | Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2023-05-28 | Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2022-11-12 | Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2012-12-29 | Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2012-09-18 | Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.1%, draw 28.5%, away 37.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.92 | 3.43 | 2.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.77 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.35 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.84 | 3.34 | 2.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.86 | 3.38 | 2.58 |
| SBO | 2.60 | 3.11 | 2.47 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.80 ▲ +0.30
X
3.35 ▲ +0.15
2
2.55 ▼ -0.35
57 snapshots recorded, from .