Crystal Palace
vs
Nottingham Forest
Garuda Lions Prediction: Crystal Palace
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
| Probability | Crystal Palace | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.1% | 23.3% | 22.6% |
| Market | 35.7% | 28.3% | 36.0% |
| Final | 40.3% | 27.0% | 32.7% |
| Edge | +18.4% | -5.0% | -13.4% |
Why Crystal Palace
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Crystal Palace below the model: +18.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest match preview
Crystal Palace faces Nottingham Forest in a Premier League match with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model assigns Crystal Palace a 41% chance of winning, while Nottingham Forest has a 33% probability of victory, and a draw stands at 27%. The expected goals for Crystal Palace are 2.04, compared to Nottingham Forest's 1.36, suggesting a strong offensive performance from the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring with a 9% probability.
In terms of recent form, Crystal Palace has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, has struggled, with only one win and five other results leading to draws or losses. Historically, the last six encounters show Crystal Palace has not secured a win, with five matches ending in draws and one victory for Nottingham Forest.
Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest team news
Crystal Palace news
- A. Disasi — suspended
- A. Khalaili — muscle injury
- C. Riad — knee injury
- D. Henderson — foot injury
- J. Mateta — hamstring injury
- T. Tomiyasu — calf injury
Nottingham Forest news
- N. Savona — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.40
Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest attack and defence ratings
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crystal Palace | 40.3% | 2.48 | +18.4% | 2.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crystal Palace | 40.3% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Nottingham Forest | 32.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% |
| No | 33.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Crystal Palace win | 33.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 45.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.9% |
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest stats
Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest recent form
| Crystal Palace |
DWLWWL |
| Nottingham Forest |
LWDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-05 | Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-21 | Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-30 | Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-07 | Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest | Premier League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.7%, draw 28.3%, away 36.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.78 | 3.49 | 2.70 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.35 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.71 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Pinnacle | 2.74 | 3.49 | 2.62 |
| SBO | 2.46 | 3.09 | 2.50 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
54 snapshots recorded, from .