Arsenal
vs
Leeds
2 – 1 Full time
| 36′ | Ao Tanaka | ||
| 38′ | Ethan Ampadu | ||
| 39′ | Daniel Farke | ||
| 55′ | James Justin | ||
| 59′ | Tarik Muharemovic | ||
| 62′ | Riccardo Calafiori | ||
| 63′ | Ben WhiteJurriën Timber | ||
| 63′ | Kai HavertzViktor Gyökeres | ||
| 63′ | Myles Lewis-SkellyBruno Guimarães | ||
| 70′ | Bruno Guimarães | ||
| 71′ | Ao TanakaHarry Wilson | ||
| 71′ | Noah OkaforBrenden Aaronson | ||
| 78′ | James Justin | ||
| 79′ | James JustinLukas Nmecha | ||
| 82′ | Riccardo CalafioriPiero Hincapié | ||
| 84′ | Martin Odegaard | ||
| 86′ | Jayden BogleJean Matteo Bahoya | ||
| 86′ | Nico ElvediJaka Bijol | ||
| 90′ | Martin OdegaardMikel Merino |
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 58 | Possession % | 42 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 7 | Offsides | 4 |
| 4 | Saves | 4 |
| 436 | Accurate passes | 279 |
Arsenal vs Leeds overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arsenal vs Leeds
| Probability | Arsenal | Draw | Leeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.7% | 19.2% | 15.1% |
| Market | 67.4% | 20.5% | 12.1% |
| Final | 66.9% | 20.2% | 12.9% |
| Edge | -0.4% | -0.3% | +0.7% |
Why Arsenal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.48 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arsenal and Leeds expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.71
Arsenal and Leeds attack and defence ratings
Arsenal
Leeds
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Arsenal vs Leeds: result vs prediction
Arsenal 2 – 1 Leeds
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arsenal vs Leeds markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 66.9% | 1.49 | -0.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.1% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 66.9% |
| Draw | 20.2% | |
| Leeds | 12.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.7% |
| No | 33.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win | 45.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 34.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.0% |
| 1-1 | 8.0% | |
| 3-1 | 7.8% |
Arsenal vs Leeds stats
Arsenal and Leeds recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arsenal and Leeds going into this match
Arsenal record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Leeds record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Arsenal vs Leeds head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Leeds | Arsenal | Premier League | 0-4 |
| 2025-08-23 | Arsenal | Leeds | Premier League | 5-0 |
| 2023-04-01 | Arsenal | Leeds | Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2022-10-16 | Leeds | Arsenal | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2022-05-08 | Arsenal | Leeds | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2021-12-18 | Leeds | Arsenal | Premier League | 1-4 |
| 2021-10-26 | Arsenal | Leeds | League Cup | 2-0 |
| 2021-02-14 | Arsenal | Leeds | Premier League | 4-2 |
| 2020-11-22 | Leeds | Arsenal | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2020-01-06 | Arsenal | Leeds | FA Cup | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arsenal vs Leeds odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.4%, draw 20.5%, away 12.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.48 | 4.72 | 7.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 4.75 | 8.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.40 | 7.90 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.75 | 8.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.41 | 4.90 | 7.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.42 | 4.71 | 8.18 |
| SBO | 1.36 | 4.33 | 7.53 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.33 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
55 snapshots recorded, from .