Arsenal
vs
Leeds
Garuda Lions Prediction: Arsenal
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Arsenal vs Leeds overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arsenal vs Leeds
| Probability | Arsenal | Draw | Leeds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.7% | 19.2% | 15.1% |
| Market | 68.6% | 19.4% | 12.1% |
| Final | 67.9% | 19.3% | 12.8% |
| Edge | -2.9% | -0.2% | +3.1% |
Why Arsenal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.48 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Arsenal vs Leeds match preview
Arsenal will host Leeds in a Premier League clash on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a strong likelihood of an Arsenal victory, assigning them a 70% probability compared to Leeds' 12%. The most probable scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Arsenal, with an expected goals tally of 2.48 for Arsenal and 1.23 for Leeds. Additionally, there is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score 67% of the time.
In terms of recent form, Arsenal has recorded five wins and one loss in their last six matches, while Leeds has two wins, three draws, and one loss in the same period. Historically, Arsenal has dominated their last two encounters with Leeds, winning both without conceding. The confidence grade for this match is A, reflecting a strong alignment between model probabilities and market odds.
Arsenal and Leeds team news
Arsenal news
- C. Tzolis — hamstring injury
- E. Konsa — muscle injury
- K. Havertz — muscle injury
- M. Dowman — injury
- W. Saliba — back injury
Leeds news
- H. Wilson — muscle injury
- J. Bahoya — ankle injury
- J. Rodon — muscle injury
- M. Joseph — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arsenal and Leeds expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.71
Arsenal and Leeds attack and defence ratings
Arsenal
Leeds
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arsenal vs Leeds markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 67.9% | 1.47 | -2.9% | 1.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.2% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 67.9% |
| Draw | 19.3% | |
| Leeds | 12.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.7% |
| No | 33.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win | 45.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 34.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.0% |
| 1-1 | 8.0% | |
| 3-1 | 7.8% |
Arsenal vs Leeds stats
Arsenal and Leeds recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arsenal and Leeds season so far
Arsenal record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Leeds record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Arsenal vs Leeds head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Leeds | Arsenal | Premier League | 0-4 |
| 2025-08-23 | Arsenal | Leeds | Premier League | 5-0 |
| 2023-04-01 | Arsenal | Leeds | Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2022-10-16 | Leeds | Arsenal | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2022-05-08 | Arsenal | Leeds | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2021-12-18 | Leeds | Arsenal | Premier League | 1-4 |
| 2021-10-26 | Arsenal | Leeds | League Cup | 2-0 |
| 2021-02-14 | Arsenal | Leeds | Premier League | 4-2 |
| 2020-11-22 | Leeds | Arsenal | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2020-01-06 | Arsenal | Leeds | FA Cup | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arsenal vs Leeds odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 68.6%, draw 19.4%, away 12.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.44 | 5.08 | 8.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.75 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 4.65 | 7.90 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.41 | 4.90 | 7.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 4.95 | 7.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38 | 5.08 | 8.36 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 4.19 | 7.05 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.60 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
54 snapshots recorded, from .