Aston Villa
vs
Brentford
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aston Villa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Aston Villa vs Brentford overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aston Villa vs Brentford
| Probability | Aston Villa | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.4% | 22.1% | 33.5% |
| Market | 36.4% | 27.0% | 36.6% |
| Final | 38.4% | 25.8% | 35.8% |
| Edge | +8.0% | -4.9% | -3.1% |
Why Aston Villa
- The market prices Aston Villa below the model: +8.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Aston Villa vs Brentford match preview
Aston Villa will face Brentford in a Premier League clash on October 10, 2026. The match features Aston Villa with a 38% probability of winning, while Brentford stands at 36%, and a draw is at 26%. The expected goals for Aston Villa are 2.12, compared to Brentford's 1.94, indicating a potentially competitive encounter. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Aston Villa, with a 7% chance of occurring.
Both teams have shown strong attacking capabilities, with an 79% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 77% chance of both teams scoring. In recent form, Aston Villa has recorded two wins, one draw, and three losses, while Brentford has been more consistent with three wins and three draws in their last six matches. The head-to-head record shows Aston Villa with a slight edge, having won three of the last seven encounters.
Aston Villa and Brentford team news
Aston Villa news
- A. Onana — knee injury
- I. Maatsen — ankle injury
- L. Goretzka — knee injury
Brentford news
- D. Ouattara — illness
- J. Dasilva — muscle injury
- K. Furo — surgery
- M. Damsgaard — ankle injury
- M. Jensen — muscle injury
- N. Collins — calf injury
- S. van den Berg — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aston Villa and Brentford expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.06
Aston Villa and Brentford attack and defence ratings
Aston Villa
Brentford
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aston Villa vs Brentford markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 38.4% | 2.60 | +8.0% | 2.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 38.4% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Brentford | 35.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.4% |
| No | 22.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aston Villa win | 26.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.7% | |
| Loss | 55.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 7.7% |
| 2-1 | 7.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
Aston Villa vs Brentford stats
Aston Villa and Brentford recent form
| Aston Villa |
WWLWDL |
| Brentford |
WWDDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aston Villa and Brentford season so far
Aston Villa record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Brentford record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aston Villa vs Brentford head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Aston Villa | Brentford | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-16 | Brentford | Aston Villa | League Cup | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Brentford | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-08 | Brentford | Aston Villa | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-04 | Aston Villa | Brentford | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2024-04-06 | Aston Villa | Brentford | Premier League | 3-3 |
| 2023-12-17 | Brentford | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-07-30 | Aston Villa | Brentford | Premier League - Summer Series | 3-3 |
| 2023-04-22 | Brentford | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2022-10-23 | Aston Villa | Brentford | Premier League | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aston Villa vs Brentford odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.4%, draw 27.0%, away 36.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.67 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.55 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.68 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.70 | 3.59 | 2.61 |
| SBO | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.37 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
54 snapshots recorded, from .