Premier League
·
Full time
·Matchday 6
Aston Villa
vs
Brentford
2 – 2 Full time
| 10′ | Yehor Yarmoliuk | ||
| 12′ | Nicolas Jackson | ||
| 35′ | Igor Thiago | ||
| 45′ | Emiliano Buendía | ||
| 45′ | Matteo RuggeriAaron Wan-Bissaka | ||
| 45′ | Jannik SchusterAaron Hickey | ||
| 52′ | Kevin SchadeMamadou Sangare | ||
| 64′ | Emiliano BuendíaIbrahim Mbaye | ||
| 67′ | Keane Lewis-PotterDango Ouattara | ||
| 67′ | Yehor YarmoliukMathias Jensen | ||
| 72′ | Matty Cash | ||
| 75′ | Vitaly Janelt | ||
| 77′ | John McGinn | ||
| 79′ | Kristoffer Ajer | ||
| 82′ | Michael Kayode | ||
| 84′ | Kristoffer Ajer | ||
| 85′ | Jaidon AnthonyCallum Wilson | ||
| 86′ | João GomesRoss Barkley | ||
| 86′ | Johan Manzambi Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha | ||
| 90′ | Callum Wilson | ||
| 90′ | K. Andrews |
Aston Villa
38%
Draw
26%
Brentford
37%
Match stats
| 20 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 24 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 5 |
| 321 | Accurate passes | 284 |
Aston Villa vs Brentford overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aston Villa vs Brentford
| Probability | Aston Villa | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.4% | 22.1% | 33.5% |
| Market | 35.3% | 27.1% | 37.6% |
| Final | 37.6% | 25.8% | 36.6% |
| Edge | +2.3% | -1.2% | -1.0% |
Why Aston Villa
- The market prices Aston Villa below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
93%
3+ goals
79%
No goals
3%
Aston Villa and Brentford expected goals
Aston Villa
2.12
Brentford
1.94
Total expected goals: 4.06
Aston Villa and Brentford attack and defence ratings
Aston Villa
Attack
1.25 +25%
Defence
1.11 +11%
Brentford
Attack
1.41 +41%
Defence
1.12 +12%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Aston Villa vs Brentford: result vs prediction
Aston Villa 2 – 2 Brentford
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aston Villa vs Brentford markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 37.6% | 2.66 | +2.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 37.6% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Brentford | 36.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77.4% |
| No | 22.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aston Villa win | 26.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.7% | |
| Loss | 55.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 7.7% |
| 2-1 | 7.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
Aston Villa vs Brentford stats
Aston Villa and Brentford recent form
| Aston Villa |
WWLWDL |
| Brentford |
WWDDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aston Villa and Brentford going into this match
Aston Villa record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Brentford record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aston Villa vs Brentford head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Aston Villa wins
4Draws
2Brentford wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Aston Villa | Brentford | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-16 | Brentford | Aston Villa | League Cup | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Brentford | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-08 | Brentford | Aston Villa | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-04 | Aston Villa | Brentford | Premier League | 3-1 |
| 2024-04-06 | Aston Villa | Brentford | Premier League | 3-3 |
| 2023-12-17 | Brentford | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2023-07-30 | Aston Villa | Brentford | Premier League - Summer Series | 3-3 |
| 2023-04-22 | Brentford | Aston Villa | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2022-10-23 | Aston Villa | Brentford | Premier League | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aston Villa vs Brentford odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.3%, draw 27.1%, away 37.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.81 | 3.60 | 2.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.55 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.55 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.74 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.82 | 3.54 | 2.52 |
| SBO | 2.51 | 3.19 | 2.52 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.70 ▼ -0.10
X
3.52 ▲ +0.02
2
2.54 ▲ +0.14
55 snapshots recorded, from .