Chelsea
vs
Bournemouth
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chelsea
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Chelsea vs Bournemouth overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chelsea vs Bournemouth
| Probability | Chelsea | Draw | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.6% | 23.3% | 41.1% |
| Market | 56.7% | 22.6% | 20.7% |
| Final | 51.4% | 22.8% | 25.8% |
| Edge | -21.2% | +0.7% | +20.4% |
Why Chelsea
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth match preview
Chelsea faces Bournemouth in a Premier League encounter with Chelsea holding a 48% probability of winning compared to Bournemouth's 28%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 24%. The most anticipated scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Chelsea, occurring with a 7% probability. Both teams are expected to score, and there is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Chelsea has recorded two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches, while Bournemouth has achieved one win, three draws, and two losses. Historically, Chelsea has dominated their recent encounters, winning two of the last six meetings, with the other four resulting in draws. Expected goals suggest Chelsea at 1.78 and Bournemouth at 2.01, indicating a competitive match ahead.
Chelsea and Bournemouth team news
Chelsea news
- E. Emegha — muscle injury
- J. Gittens — ankle injury
- Joao Pedro — knee injury
- M. Caicedo — calf injury
- M. Palestra — thigh injury
Bournemouth news
- A. Adli — calf injury
- A. Scott — thigh injury
- D. Brooks — injury
- E. J. Kroupi — foot injury
- J. Araujo — thigh injury
- J. Kluivert — muscle injury
- V. Milosavljevic — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chelsea and Bournemouth expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.79
Chelsea and Bournemouth attack and defence ratings
Chelsea
Bournemouth
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chelsea vs Bournemouth markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 51.4% | 1.94 | -21.2% | 1.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 51.4% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Bournemouth | 25.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.4% |
| No | 25.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chelsea win | 19.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.2% | |
| Loss | 64.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.9% |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Chelsea vs Bournemouth stats
Chelsea and Bournemouth recent form
| Chelsea |
LDWLWW |
| Bournemouth |
LWDWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chelsea and Bournemouth season so far
Chelsea record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Bournemouth record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | Chelsea | Bournemouth | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-12-06 | Bournemouth | Chelsea | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-01-14 | Chelsea | Bournemouth | Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2024-09-14 | Bournemouth | Chelsea | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2024-05-19 | Chelsea | Bournemouth | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-17 | Bournemouth | Chelsea | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2023-05-06 | Bournemouth | Chelsea | Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2022-12-27 | Chelsea | Bournemouth | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2021-07-27 | Bournemouth | Chelsea | Friendlies Clubs | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.7%, draw 22.6%, away 20.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 4.36 | 4.83 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 4.33 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 4.25 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 4.25 | 4.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 4.16 | 4.73 |
| SBO | 1.65 | 3.74 | 3.94 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
54 snapshots recorded, from .