Liverpool
vs
Manchester City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Manchester City
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Liverpool vs Manchester City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Liverpool vs Manchester City
| Probability | Liverpool | Draw | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.0% | 24.3% | 43.6% |
| Market | 34.4% | 25.8% | 39.8% |
| Final | 33.8% | 25.4% | 40.8% |
| Edge | -2.3% | -1.5% | +3.8% |
Why Manchester City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.58.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices Manchester City below the model: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Liverpool vs Manchester City match preview
Liverpool faces Manchester City in a highly anticipated Premier League clash. The model indicates a 32% probability of a Liverpool victory, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 43% likelihood of a Manchester City win. The most probable scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Manchester City, with a 9% chance of occurring. The match is expected to feature over 2.5 goals at a rate of 70%, and both teams are likely to score, with a 71% probability.
In terms of recent form, Liverpool has recorded three wins, two draws, and one defeat in their last six matches, while Manchester City boasts an impressive six consecutive wins. Historically, in their last seven encounters, Liverpool has secured two victories, while Manchester City has won three times, with two matches ending in a draw. Expected goals are 1.58 for Liverpool and 1.95 for Manchester City, indicating a competitive matchup.
Liverpool and Manchester City team news
Liverpool news
- A. Isak — thigh injury
- C. Bradley — knee injury
- C. Gakpo — ankle injury
- F. Chiesa — back injury
- G. Leoni — knee injury
- H. Ekitike — achilles tendon injury
- J. Jacquet — muscle injury
Manchester City news
- N. O'Reilly — injury
- P. Foden — suspended
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Liverpool and Manchester City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.53
Liverpool and Manchester City attack and defence ratings
Liverpool
Manchester City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Liverpool vs Manchester City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester City | 40.8% | 2.45 | +3.8% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 33.8% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Manchester City | 40.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.7% |
| No | 29.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Manchester City win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 56.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 2-1 | 7.3% |
Liverpool vs Manchester City stats
Liverpool and Manchester City recent form
| Liverpool |
WWDWWD |
| Manchester City |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Liverpool vs Manchester City head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Manchester City | Liverpool | England FA Cup | 4-0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Liverpool | Manchester City | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-09 | Manchester City | Liverpool | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2025-02-23 | Manchester City | Liverpool | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2024-12-01 | Liverpool | Manchester City | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2024-03-10 | Liverpool | Manchester City | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-25 | Manchester City | Liverpool | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Liverpool vs Manchester City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.4%, draw 25.8%, away 39.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.87 | 3.80 | 2.48 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.77 | 3.65 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.38 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.70 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.67 | 3.72 | 2.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.74 | 3.74 | 2.49 |
| SBO | 2.50 | 3.36 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
52 snapshots recorded, from .