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Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 5

Brentford vs Chelsea

3 – 0 Full time

61′Jaidon Anthony
69′Michael KayodeAaron Hickey
69′Yehor YarmoliukMamadou Sangare
71′Danny WelbeckGeovany Quenda
71′Wesley FofanaJosh Acheampong
81′Jaidon AnthonyDango Ouattara
81′Keane Lewis-PotterEl Hadji Malick Diouf
83′Igor Thiago
84′Igor Thiago
85′Mamadou Sangare
87′Valentin BarcoMahdi Nicoll-Jazuli
87′Pedro NetoEstêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
87′Mikkel DamsgaardFabio Carvalho
90′Fabio Carvalho

Gtech Community Stadium, LondonReferee: Andrew Madley

Brentford 41%
Draw 24%
Chelsea 35%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 12
6 Shots on target 2
40 Possession % 60
4 Corners 12
10 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 2
2 Saves 3
276 Accurate passes 446

Brentford vs Chelsea overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Brentford vs Chelsea

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBrentfordDrawChelsea
Model54.1%19.6%26.3%
Market36.6%25.7%37.7%
Final41.0%24.1%34.9%
Edge+17.5%-6.1%-11.5%

Confidence: High

Why Brentford

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 1.91.
  • The market prices Brentford below the model: +17.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Brentford ↓ / Chelsea → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 4% 3 6% 6% 4+ 4% 8% 8% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 95%
3+ goals 84%
No goals 2%

Brentford and Chelsea expected goals

Brentford 2.57
Chelsea 1.91

Total expected goals: 4.48

Brentford and Chelsea attack and defence ratings

Brentford

Attack 1.39 +39%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Chelsea

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 1.21 +21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Brentford vs Chelsea: result vs prediction

Brentford 3 – 0 Chelsea

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Premier League

Before and after this match

Brentford vs Chelsea markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Brentford 41.0% 2.44 +17.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83.8% 1.19 — —
Both teams to score Yes 80.3% 1.25 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.9% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.9% 2.18 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Brentford41.0%
Draw24.1%
Chelsea34.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.583.8%
Under 2.516.2%
Both teams to scoreYes80.3%
No19.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.1%
12 (either side)75.9%
X2 (draw or away)59.0%
Handicap -1Brentford win36.0%
Push (exactly one goal)18.1%
Loss45.9%
Correct score (top 3)2-16.9%
2-26.6%
3-16.2%

Brentford vs Chelsea stats

Brentford and Chelsea recent form

newest first
Brentford WDDDWW
Chelsea DWLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Brentford vs Chelsea head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Brentford wins 4Draws 3Chelsea wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-17ChelseaBrentfordPremier League2-0
2025-09-13BrentfordChelseaPremier League2-2
2025-04-06BrentfordChelseaPremier League0-0
2024-12-15ChelseaBrentfordPremier League2-1
2024-03-02BrentfordChelseaPremier League2-2
2023-10-28ChelseaBrentfordPremier League0-2
2023-04-26ChelseaBrentfordPremier League0-2
2022-10-19BrentfordChelseaPremier League0-0
2022-04-02ChelseaBrentfordPremier League1-4
2021-12-22BrentfordChelseaLeague Cup0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Brentford vs Chelsea odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.6%, draw 25.7%, away 37.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.71 3.84 2.59
Bet365 2.55 3.75 2.55
BetVictor 2.63 3.60 2.50
Betano 2.60 3.70 2.52
Betfair 2.63 3.75 2.55
Marathonbet 2.63 3.76 2.59
Pinnacle 2.67 3.78 2.57
SBO 2.54 3.62 2.45
William Hill 2.62 3.60 2.45

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.63 ▼ -0.04
X 3.75 ▲ +0.18
2 2.55 ▲ +0.01

26 snapshots recorded, from .