Garuda Lions
Today
Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 5

Brighton vs Arsenal

3 – 0 Full time

31′Pascal Groß
33′Charalampos Kostoulas
45′Charalampos Kostoulas
45′Ferdi Kadıoğlu
57′Chema Andrés
60′Jurriën TimberMartín Zubimendi
60′Bruno GuimarãesMikel Merino
71′Pascal Struijk
73′Martin OdegaardViktor Gyökeres
73′Christos TzolisEberechi Eze
76′Ferdi KadıoğluCostinha
76′Charalampos KostoulasGeorginio Rutter
81′Bukayo SakaMax Dowman
85′Chema AndrésMalick Yalcouyé
86′Diego GomezMatt O'Riley
86′Pascal StruijkMichael Svoboda
90′Maxim De Cuyper
90′Declan Rice

American Express Stadium, FalmerReferee: Darren England

Brighton 25%
Draw 24%
Arsenal 51%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 2
40 Possession % 60
5 Corners 6
13 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 2
2 Saves 2
258 Accurate passes 425

Brighton vs Arsenal overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Brighton vs Arsenal

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBrightonDrawArsenal
Model39.8%24.3%35.9%
Market20.0%24.3%55.7%
Final24.9%24.3%50.8%
Edge+19.8%-0.0%-19.8%

Confidence: High

Why Arsenal

  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Brighton ↓ / Arsenal → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 8% 2 8% 7% 3 5% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 4%

Brighton and Arsenal expected goals

Brighton 1.78
Arsenal 1.78

Total expected goals: 3.57

Brighton and Arsenal attack and defence ratings

Brighton

Attack 1.52 +52%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Arsenal

Attack 1.40 +40%
Defence 0.77 -23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Brighton vs Arsenal: result vs prediction

Brighton 3 – 0 Arsenal

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Premier League

Before and after this match

Brighton vs Arsenal markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Arsenal 50.8% 1.97 -19.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.8% 1.41 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.7% 1.39 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.7% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 64.0% 1.56 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Brighton24.9%
Draw24.3%
Arsenal50.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.8%
Under 2.529.2%
Both teams to scoreYes71.7%
No28.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)49.2%
12 (either side)75.7%
X2 (draw or away)75.1%
Handicap -1Arsenal win19.3%
Push (exactly one goal)16.7%
Loss64.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.9%
2-18.1%
1-27.7%

Brighton vs Arsenal stats

Brighton and Arsenal recent form

newest first
Brighton WWDLWW
Arsenal WWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Brighton vs Arsenal head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Brighton wins 2Draws 6Arsenal wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-04BrightonArsenalPremier League0-1
2025-12-27ArsenalBrightonPremier League2-1
2025-10-29ArsenalBrightonLeague Cup2-0
2025-01-04BrightonArsenalPremier League1-1
2024-08-31ArsenalBrightonPremier League1-1
2024-04-06BrightonArsenalPremier League0-3
2023-12-17ArsenalBrightonPremier League2-0
2023-05-14ArsenalBrightonPremier League0-3
2022-12-31BrightonArsenalPremier League2-4
2022-11-09ArsenalBrightonLeague Cup1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Brighton vs Arsenal odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 20.0%, draw 24.3%, away 55.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.82 4.12 1.77
Bet365 4.75 3.90 1.70
BetVictor 4.75 3.90 1.70
Betano 4.80 3.95 1.78
Betfair 5.00 3.90 1.70
Marathonbet 4.75 4.05 1.74
Pinnacle 4.89 3.92 1.74
SBO 4.19 3.50 1.66
William Hill 4.50 3.90 1.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.75 ▲ +0.26
X 3.90 ▲ +0.20
2 1.70 ▼ -0.11

27 snapshots recorded, from .