Ipswich
vs
Arsenal
2 – 4 Full time
| 7′ | Max Dowman | ||
| 16′ | Noni Madueke | ||
| 34′ | Kasey McAteer | ||
| 45′ | Gabriel dos Santos MagalhãesEzri Konsa | ||
| 47′ | Max Dowman | ||
| 58′ | Mikel Merino | ||
| 61′ | Jaden Philogene-BidaceJack Clarke | ||
| 61′ | Zian FlemmingChuba Akpom | ||
| 62′ | Anis·Mehmeti | ||
| 64′ | Bruno GuimarãesTheo Julienne | ||
| 68′ | Abdoul OuattaraLeif Davis | ||
| 69′ | Kasey McAteerSindre Walle Egeli | ||
| 76′ | Eberechi EzeChristos Tzolis | ||
| 76′ | Noni MaduekeMartin Odegaard | ||
| 81′ | Florentino LuísSaša Lukić | ||
| 85′ | Martín ZubimendiIfeoluwa David Ibrahim | ||
| 87′ | Marcelino Núñez | ||
| 90′ | Chuba Akpom |
Match stats
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 42 | Possession % | 58 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 341 | Accurate passes | 521 |
Ipswich vs Arsenal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ipswich vs Arsenal
| Probability | Ipswich | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.1% | 24.0% | 55.9% |
| Market | 8.7% | 16.6% | 74.7% |
| Final | 11.5% | 18.5% | 70.0% |
| Edge | +11.4% | +7.4% | -18.8% |
Why Arsenal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ipswich and Arsenal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Ipswich and Arsenal attack and defence ratings
Ipswich
Arsenal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ipswich vs Arsenal: result vs prediction
Ipswich 2 – 4 Arsenal
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ipswich vs Arsenal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 70.0% | 1.43 | -18.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ipswich | 11.5% |
| Draw | 18.5% | |
| Arsenal | 70.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% |
| No | 42.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 30.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 88.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win | 33.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 44.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.0% |
Ipswich vs Arsenal stats
Ipswich vs Arsenal head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-20 | Ipswich | Arsenal | Premier League | 0-4 |
| 2024-12-27 | Arsenal | Ipswich | Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ipswich vs Arsenal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 8.8%, draw 17.6%, away 73.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 7.40 | 4.45 | 1.41 |
| 1xBet | 12.00 | 5.80 | 1.30 |
| 888Sport | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.44 |
| Bet365 | 11.00 | 5.25 | 1.28 |
| BetVictor | 11.50 | 6.00 | 1.25 |
| Betano | 11.50 | 5.90 | 1.30 |
| Betfair | 10.50 | 5.50 | 1.25 |
| Marathonbet | 12.00 | 5.75 | 1.29 |
| Pinnacle | 10.98 | 5.82 | 1.29 |
| SBO | 8.10 | 5.22 | 1.27 |
| Unibet | 5.75 | 4.40 | 1.50 |
| William Hill | 10.00 | 5.00 | 1.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .