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League Cup · Full time ·Round of 32

Manchester United vs Brighton

2 – 3 Full time

8′Shea Lacey
10′Mason Mount
43′Chema Andrés
45′Charalampos Kostoulas
59′Jaouen Hadjam
65′Pascal Groß
66′Benjamin ŠeškoJoshua Zirkzee
66′Andrey SantosKobbie Mainoo
66′Shea LaceyBryan Mbeumo
66′Malick YalcouyéMaxim De Cuyper
66′Matt O'RileyDiego Gomez
69′Maxim De Cuyper
73′Mason MountBruno Fernandes
74′Jaouen HadjamFerdi Kadıoğlu
74′Olivier BoscagliYasin Ayari
80′Marcus RashfordMatheus Cunha
82′Charalampos KostoulasGeorginio Rutter
85′Yasin Ayari
90′Maxim De Cuyper

Old Trafford, ManchesterReferee: F. Hallam

Manchester United 51%
Draw 22%
Brighton 27%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 18
4 Shots on target 5
42 Possession % 58
4 Corners 3
5 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 2
2 Saves 2
435 Accurate passes 440

Manchester United vs Brighton overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Manchester United vs Brighton

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityManchester UnitedDrawBrighton
Model37.1%23.3%39.6%
Market55.6%22.1%22.3%
Final51.0%22.4%26.6%
Edge-18.5%+1.3%+17.2%

Confidence: High

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Manchester Uni ↓ / Brighton → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 8% 5% 2 8% 7% 3 5% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

Manchester United and Brighton expected goals

Manchester United 1.83
Brighton 1.87

Total expected goals: 3.70

Manchester United and Brighton attack and defence ratings

Manchester United

Attack 1.40 +40%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Brighton

Attack 1.39 +39%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Manchester United vs Brighton: result vs prediction

Manchester United 2 – 3 Brighton

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 32 fixtures

League Cup

Before and after this match

Manchester United vs Brighton markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Manchester United 51.0% 1.96 -18.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.2% 1.40 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.7% 1.40 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.6% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.6% 1.60 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Manchester United51.0%
Draw22.4%
Brighton26.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.2%
Under 2.528.8%
Both teams to scoreYes71.7%
No28.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.4%
12 (either side)77.6%
X2 (draw or away)49.0%
Handicap -1Manchester United win20.1%
Push (exactly one goal)17.3%
Loss62.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.4%
1-28.0%
2-17.7%

Manchester United vs Brighton stats

Manchester United and Brighton recent form

newest first
Manchester United LWDWLW
Brighton WDLWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Manchester United vs Brighton head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Manchester United wins 1Draws 6Brighton wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-24BrightonManchester UnitedPremier League0-3
2026-01-11Manchester UnitedBrightonEngland FA Cup1-2
2025-10-25Manchester UnitedBrightonPremier League4-2
2025-01-19Manchester UnitedBrightonPremier League1-3
2024-08-24BrightonManchester UnitedPremier League2-1
2024-05-19BrightonManchester UnitedPremier League0-2
2023-09-16Manchester UnitedBrightonPremier League1-3
2023-05-04BrightonManchester UnitedPremier League1-0
2023-04-23BrightonManchester UnitedFA Cup0-0
2022-08-07Manchester UnitedBrightonPremier League1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Manchester United vs Brighton odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 54.6%, draw 22.7%, away 22.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.76 4.00 4.00
1xBet 1.76 4.40 4.28
888Sport 1.75 3.80 3.60
Bet365 1.67 4.20 4.50
BetVictor 1.70 4.33 4.20
Betano 1.75 4.40 4.35
Betfair 1.67 4.20 4.33
Marathonbet 1.74 4.40 4.35
Pinnacle 1.72 4.47 4.20
SBO 1.82 3.46 3.25
Unibet 1.77 3.95 3.95
William Hill 1.70 4.00 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.72 ▼ -0.09
X 4.33 ▲ +0.33
2 4.28 ▲ +0.43

18 snapshots recorded, from .