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Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 4

Manchester United vs Manchester City

0 – 1 Full time

23′Phil Foden
45′Vincenzo Maresca
45′Rayan CherkiIliman Ndiaye
60′Erling Haaland
67′Youri TielemansBenjamin Šeško
79′Josko Gvardiol
80′Enzo Fernández
81′Harry Maguire
82′Enzo FernándezNico O'Reilly
83′Marcus RashfordJoshua Zirkzee

Old Trafford, ManchesterReferee: Michael Oliver

Manchester United 34%
Draw 25%
Manchester City 41%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

16 Shots 6
3 Shots on target 2
55 Possession % 45
6 Corners 7
17 Fouls 10
4 Offsides 1
1 Saves 3
425 Accurate passes 331

Manchester United vs Manchester City overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Manchester United vs Manchester City

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityManchester UnitedDrawManchester City
Model44.9%24.2%30.9%
Market31.0%25.3%43.7%
Final34.5%25.0%40.5%
Edge+13.9%-1.1%-12.7%

Confidence: High

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Manchester Uni ↓ / Manchester Cit → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 7% 2 5% 9% 7% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

Manchester United and Manchester City expected goals

Manchester United 1.88
Manchester City 1.65

Total expected goals: 3.53

Manchester United and Manchester City attack and defence ratings

Manchester United

Attack 1.55 +55%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Manchester City

Attack 1.44 +44%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Manchester United vs Manchester City: result vs prediction

Manchester United 0 – 1 Manchester City

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Premier League

Before and after this match

Manchester United vs Manchester City markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Manchester City 40.5% 2.47 -12.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.1% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.8% 1.41 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.0% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 68.7% 1.46 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Manchester United34.5%
Draw25.0%
Manchester City40.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.1%
Under 2.529.9%
Both teams to scoreYes70.8%
No29.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.5%
12 (either side)75.0%
X2 (draw or away)65.5%
Handicap -1Manchester City win15.9%
Push (exactly one goal)15.4%
Loss68.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.0%
2-18.6%
1-27.1%

Manchester United vs Manchester City stats

Manchester United and Manchester City recent form

newest first
Manchester United WDWLWW
Manchester City WWWWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Manchester United vs Manchester City head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Manchester United wins 2Draws 4Manchester City wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-17Manchester UnitedManchester CityPremier League2-0
2025-09-14Manchester CityManchester UnitedPremier League3-0
2025-04-06Manchester UnitedManchester CityPremier League0-0
2024-12-15Manchester CityManchester UnitedPremier League1-2
2024-08-10Manchester CityManchester UnitedCommunity Shield1-1
2024-05-25Manchester CityManchester UnitedFA Cup1-2
2024-03-03Manchester CityManchester UnitedPremier League3-1
2023-10-29Manchester UnitedManchester CityPremier League0-3
2023-06-03Manchester CityManchester UnitedFA Cup2-1
2023-01-14Manchester UnitedManchester CityPremier League2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Manchester United vs Manchester City odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.7%, draw 25.0%, away 44.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.05 3.80 2.10
1xBet 3.18 3.94 2.23
Bet365 3.10 3.75 2.20
BetVictor 3.00 3.80 2.15
Betano 3.15 3.90 2.22
Betfair 3.10 3.75 2.15
Dafabet 3.05 3.70 2.20
Marathonbet 3.14 3.88 2.20
Pinnacle 3.13 3.81 2.21
SBO 2.84 3.34 2.08
Unibet 3.05 4.00 2.10
William Hill 3.00 3.60 2.10
tipico_de 3.40 3.60 2.05

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.10 ▼ -0.30
X 3.80 ▲ +0.20
2 2.20 ▲ +0.15

28 snapshots recorded, from .