Garuda Lions
Today
Premier League · Full time ·Matchday 4

Bournemouth vs Brentford

2 – 2 Full time

34′Kevin Schade
38′Justin Kluivert
45′Igor Thiago
45′Marcus Tavernier
52′Marcus Tavernier
56′Kevin Schade
60′Yehor YarmoliukMikkel Damsgaard
60′Keane Lewis-PotterEl Hadji Malick Diouf
60′Jaidon AnthonyDango Ouattara
63′James Hill
66′Justin KluivertRyan Christie
71′Aaron HickeyMichael Kayode
82′Rayan Vitor Simplício RochaBen Gannon-Doak
82′Tyler AdamsLewis Cook
83′Marcus TavernierDavid Brooks
85′Lewis Cook
87′Adam Smith
89′David Brooks
90′Francisco EvanilsonÁlvaro Rodríguez

Vitality Stadium, BournemouthReferee: Jarred Gillett

Bournemouth 42%
Draw 25%
Brentford 33%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 8
10 Shots on target 2
56 Possession % 44
2 Corners 1
10 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 1
0 Saves 8
395 Accurate passes 260

Bournemouth vs Brentford overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Bournemouth vs Brentford

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBournemouthDrawBrentford
Model54.6%20.2%25.1%
Market38.3%26.6%35.2%
Final42.4%25.0%32.7%
Edge+16.4%-6.3%-10.0%

Confidence: High

Why Bournemouth

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.77.
  • The market prices Bournemouth below the model: +16.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Bournemouth ↓ / Brentford → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 5% 2 4% 8% 7% 4% 3 7% 6% 4+ 4% 8% 7% 4%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 81%
No goals 2%

Bournemouth and Brentford expected goals

Bournemouth 2.46
Brentford 1.77

Total expected goals: 4.23

Bournemouth and Brentford attack and defence ratings

Bournemouth

Attack 1.36 +36%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Brentford

Attack 1.48 +48%
Defence 1.18 +18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Bournemouth vs Brentford: result vs prediction

Bournemouth 2 – 2 Brentford

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Premier League

Before and after this match

Bournemouth vs Brentford markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bournemouth 42.4% 2.36 +16.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81.0% 1.23 — —
Both teams to score Yes 77.6% 1.29 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.0% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.4% 2.20 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Bournemouth42.4%
Draw25.0%
Brentford32.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581.0%
Under 2.519.0%
Both teams to scoreYes77.6%
No22.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.3%
12 (either side)75.0%
X2 (draw or away)57.6%
Handicap -1Bournemouth win36.0%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss45.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-17.6%
1-16.8%
2-26.7%

Bournemouth vs Brentford stats

Bournemouth and Brentford recent form

newest first
Bournemouth WDDLDD
Brentford DDWWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Bournemouth vs Brentford head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0Bournemouth wins 3Draws 7Brentford wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-03BournemouthBrentfordPremier League0-0
2025-12-27BrentfordBournemouthPremier League4-1
2025-08-26BournemouthBrentfordLeague Cup0-2
2025-03-15BournemouthBrentfordPremier League1-2
2024-11-09BrentfordBournemouthPremier League3-2
2024-05-11BournemouthBrentfordPremier League1-2
2023-09-02BrentfordBournemouthPremier League2-2
2023-01-14BrentfordBournemouthPremier League2-0
2022-10-01BournemouthBrentfordPremier League0-0
2021-05-22BrentfordBournemouthChampionship3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Bournemouth vs Brentford odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.0%, draw 26.8%, away 35.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.55 3.50 2.55
1xBet 2.56 3.68 2.84
Bet365 2.50 3.60 2.75
BetVictor 2.40 3.70 2.70
Betano 2.50 3.55 2.72
Betfair 2.50 3.60 2.70
Dafabet 2.60 3.50 2.60
Marathonbet 2.52 3.62 2.79
Pinnacle 2.49 3.66 2.78
SBO 2.47 3.26 2.50
Unibet 2.50 3.50 2.63
William Hill 2.50 3.40 2.62
tipico_de 2.55 3.30 2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.50 ▼ -0.05
X 3.60 ▲ +0.30
2 2.72 ▼ -0.03

26 snapshots recorded, from .