Bournemouth
vs
Sturm Graz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bournemouth
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 10% model probability
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz
| Probability | Bournemouth | Draw | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.8% | 25.6% | 21.6% |
| Market | 79.3% | 13.4% | 7.2% |
| Final | 72.7% | 16.5% | 10.8% |
| Edge | -26.6% | +12.2% | +14.4% |
Why Bournemouth
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.07.
Best available price on the pick: 1.21, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz match preview
Bournemouth will host Sturm Graz in the UEFA Europa League on October 15, 2026. The model indicates a 53% probability of a Bournemouth victory, with a 26% chance of a draw and a 22% likelihood of Sturm Graz winning. The expected goals for Bournemouth stand at 1.77, while Sturm Graz is projected to score 1.07. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Bournemouth, occurring with a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Bournemouth's last six matches show a record of one loss, two wins, and three draws. Sturm Graz has a mixed record with one loss, two wins, and three draws in their recent outings. The probabilities suggest a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% likelihood that both teams will score in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bournemouth and Sturm Graz expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Bournemouth and Sturm Graz attack and defence ratings
Bournemouth
Sturm Graz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 72.7% | 1.38 | -26.6% | 1.21 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% | 1.80 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.2% | 1.12 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.2% | 2.12 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bournemouth | 72.7% |
| Draw | 16.5% | |
| Sturm Graz | 10.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% |
| No | 44.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 27.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bournemouth win | 30.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 47.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-0 | 9.3% |
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz stats
Bournemouth and Sturm Graz recent form
| Bournemouth |
LWDWDD |
| Sturm Graz |
LDWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 79.3%, draw 13.4%, away 7.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.21 | 7.60 | 13.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.18 | 6.50 | 12.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.15 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.21 | 6.80 | 12.50 |
| Betfair | 1.17 | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.20 | 7.40 | 13.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.19 | 7.50 | 13.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.18 | 7.46 | 13.11 |
| SBO | 1.16 | 5.90 | 9.06 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 6.50 | 11.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .