Austria Vienna
vs
Sturm Graz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sturm Graz
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
| Probability | Austria Vienna | Draw | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.6% | 27.7% | 27.7% |
| Market | 28.9% | 26.7% | 44.5% |
| Final | 32.8% | 26.9% | 40.3% |
| Edge | +15.7% | +1.0% | -16.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz match preview
Austria Vienna will face Sturm Graz in the Austria Bundesliga on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a competitive matchup, with Sturm Graz holding a slight edge at 39% probability of winning compared to Austria Vienna's 34%. The expected goals suggest a potential scoreline of 1-2 in favor of Sturm Graz, with a 7% likelihood. Both teams show a reasonable chance of scoring, with a 55% probability for both teams to find the net.
Recent form shows Austria Vienna with mixed results, recording two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last six matches. Sturm Graz has also experienced inconsistency, with one win, two draws, and three losses in their recent games. In their last four encounters, Austria Vienna has secured two victories, while Sturm Graz has one win and one draw. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz attack and defence ratings
Austria Vienna
Sturm Graz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 40.3% | 2.48 | -16.7% | 2.16 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austria Vienna | 32.8% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Sturm Graz | 40.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% |
| No | 44.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sturm Graz win | 11.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.1% | |
| Loss | 72.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-0 | 9.0% |
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz stats
Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz recent form
| Austria Vienna |
DWWLLD |
| Sturm Graz |
LDWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz season so far
Austria Vienna record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 64% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sturm Graz record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Sturm Graz | Austria Vienna | Austria Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Austria Vienna | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga | 2-5 |
| 2025-12-14 | Austria Vienna | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Sturm Graz | Austria Vienna | Austria Bundesliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-27 | Sturm Graz | Austria Vienna | Bundesliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-23 | Austria Vienna | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-07 | Sturm Graz | Austria Vienna | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-01 | Sturm Graz | Austria Vienna | Cup | 0-2 |
| 2024-09-25 | Austria Vienna | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2024-02-02 | Sturm Graz | Austria Vienna | Cup | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.9%, draw 26.7%, away 44.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.24 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.16 |
| Marathonbet | 3.24 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | 3.23 | 3.61 | 2.16 |
| SBO | 2.85 | 3.20 | 2.14 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .