Grazer AK
vs
Red Bull Salzburg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Red Bull Salzburg
0 – 2 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg
| Probability | Grazer AK | Draw | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.4% | 21.1% | 65.5% |
| Market | 16.0% | 20.6% | 63.4% |
| Final | 15.3% | 20.7% | 64.0% |
| Edge | -2.6% | +0.5% | +2.0% |
Why Red Bull Salzburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Red Bull Salzburg below the model: +2.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg match preview
Grazer AK faces Red Bull Salzburg in a Bundesliga matchup, with the model indicating a strong likelihood of a Red Bull victory at 66%. The expected goals for Grazer AK stand at 0.89, while Red Bull Salzburg is projected to score 2.16, suggesting a significant offensive advantage for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring with an 11% probability.
In recent form, Grazer AK has recorded two wins, two draws, and two losses, while Red Bull Salzburg boasts an impressive streak with six consecutive wins. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 59%, and both teams scoring sits at 53%. Historically, in their last two encounters, Grazer AK has not secured a win against Red Bull Salzburg, who has one victory and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.05
Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg attack and defence ratings
Grazer AK
Red Bull Salzburg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 64.0% | 1.56 | +2.0% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Red Bull Salzburg win | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grazer AK | 15.3% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 64.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.1% |
| No | 46.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Bull Salzburg win | 42.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 34.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 11.0% |
| 1-1 | 10.0% | |
| 1-2 | 9.8% |
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg stats
Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg recent form
| Grazer AK |
DWWDLL |
| Red Bull Salzburg |
WWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg season so far
Grazer AK record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Red Bull Salzburg record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Grazer AK | Red Bull Salzburg | Austria Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Red Bull Salzburg | Grazer AK | Austria Bundesliga | 5-0 |
| 2024-11-02 | Red Bull Salzburg | Grazer AK | Bundesliga | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-02 | Grazer AK | Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga | 2-3 |
| 2023-02-04 | Red Bull Salzburg | Grazer AK | Friendlies Clubs | 3-4 |
| 2019-04-03 | Grazer AK | Red Bull Salzburg | Cup | 0-6 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.0%, draw 20.6%, away 63.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.81 | 4.70 | 1.46 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 4.33 | 1.50 |
| BetVictor | 6.00 | 4.50 | 1.45 |
| Betano | 5.50 | 4.45 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet | 5.80 | 4.80 | 1.50 |
| Marathonbet | 5.80 | 4.70 | 1.45 |
| Pinnacle | 5.94 | 4.90 | 1.46 |
| SBO | 5.22 | 4.24 | 1.43 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 4.40 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .