Sturm Graz
vs
Grazer AK
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sturm Graz
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK
| Probability | Sturm Graz | Draw | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.5% | 30.1% | 31.3% |
| Market | 51.9% | 25.1% | 23.0% |
| Final | 48.5% | 26.4% | 25.1% |
| Edge | -13.3% | +5.0% | +8.3% |
Why Sturm Graz
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.84, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK match preview
Sturm Graz hosts Grazer AK in what appears to be a competitive matchup in the Austria Bundesliga. According to our model, Sturm Graz has a 54% probability of winning, while Grazer AK is at 21%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Sturm Graz, with expected goals of 1.47 for Sturm Graz compared to 0.95 for Grazer AK.
In terms of recent form, Sturm Graz has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Grazer AK has seen three draws, two wins, and one loss. Historically, Sturm Graz has dominated their recent encounters with Grazer AK, winning both of the last two matches without conceding. The probability of both teams scoring is estimated at 48%, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 43%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sturm Graz and Grazer AK expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.40
Sturm Graz and Grazer AK attack and defence ratings
Sturm Graz
Grazer AK
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 48.5% | 2.06 | -13.3% | 1.84 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 48.5% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Grazer AK | 25.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.0% |
| No | 50.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sturm Graz win | 17.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 61.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.3% | |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK stats
Sturm Graz and Grazer AK recent form
| Sturm Graz |
LWLDWW |
| Grazer AK |
DDWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sturm Graz and Grazer AK season so far
Sturm Graz record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Grazer AK record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | Sturm Graz | Grazer AK | Austria Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Grazer AK | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga | 0-3 |
| 2025-03-09 | Grazer AK | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2024-10-19 | Sturm Graz | Grazer AK | Bundesliga | 5-2 |
| 2023-11-02 | Grazer AK | Sturm Graz | Cup | 2-3 |
| 2022-10-19 | Grazer AK | Sturm Graz | Cup | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.2%, draw 25.0%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.80 | 3.72 | 4.08 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.75 | 4.55 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.78 | 3.72 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.84 | 3.84 | 4.03 |
| SBO | 1.70 | 3.54 | 3.90 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .