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Austria Bundesliga · Full time ·Matchday 9

Ried vs Austria Vienna

3 – 2 Full time

Josko Arena, ReedReferee: Manuel Baumann

Ried 43%
Draw 25%
Austria Vienna 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Ried vs Austria Vienna overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ried vs Austria Vienna

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRiedDrawAustria Vienna
Model53.4%22.4%24.2%
Market39.1%25.6%35.3%
Final42.7%24.8%32.5%
Edge+14.3%-3.2%-11.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Ried

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.43.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Ried below the model: +14.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Ried ↓ / Austria Vienna → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 10% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 7% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 69%
No goals 4%

Ried and Austria Vienna expected goals

Ried 2.14
Austria Vienna 1.43

Total expected goals: 3.56

Ried and Austria Vienna attack and defence ratings

Ried

Attack 1.37 +37%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Austria Vienna

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ried vs Austria Vienna: result vs prediction

Ried 3 – 2 Austria Vienna

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Austria Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Ried vs Austria Vienna markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ried 42.7% 2.34 +14.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.2% 1.45 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.8% 1.47 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.2% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.1% 2.12 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Ried42.7%
Draw24.8%
Austria Vienna32.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.2%
Under 2.530.8%
Both teams to scoreYes67.8%
No32.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.5%
12 (either side)75.2%
X2 (draw or away)57.3%
Handicap -1Ried win32.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.5%
Loss47.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.5%
2-19.2%
3-16.6%

Ried vs Austria Vienna stats

Ried and Austria Vienna recent form

newest first
Ried WWDWLW
Austria Vienna LDWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ried and Austria Vienna going into this match

league record before kick-off

Ried record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Austria Vienna record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 69% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ried vs Austria Vienna head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Ried wins 1Draws 7Austria Vienna wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-08RiedAustria ViennaAustria Bundesliga0-2
2025-09-20Austria ViennaRiedAustria Bundesliga3-2
2023-03-04RiedAustria ViennaBundesliga1-3
2022-09-18Austria ViennaRiedBundesliga3-0
2021-10-23Austria ViennaRiedBundesliga4-1
2021-07-25RiedAustria ViennaBundesliga2-1
2021-05-21RiedAustria ViennaBundesliga3-2
2021-04-20Austria ViennaRiedBundesliga2-2
2021-01-23RiedAustria ViennaBundesliga0-1
2020-09-20Austria ViennaRiedBundesliga2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Ried vs Austria Vienna odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.3%, draw 26.0%, away 34.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.38 3.70 2.61
Bet365 2.40 3.50 2.80
BetVictor 2.45 3.60 2.70
Betano 2.35 3.55 2.75
Betfair 2.38 3.60 2.70
Dafabet 2.40 3.55 2.85
Marathonbet 2.38 3.70 2.61
Pinnacle 2.46 3.93 2.69
SBO 2.28 3.15 2.67
William Hill 2.38 3.60 2.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.39 ▲ +0.10
X 3.65 ▲ +0.24
2 2.65 ▼ -0.23

16 snapshots recorded, from .