Sturm Graz
vs
Ried
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sturm Graz
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sturm Graz is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sturm Graz vs Ried overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sturm Graz vs Ried
| Probability | Sturm Graz | Draw | Ried |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.2% | 24.3% | 32.5% |
| Market | 54.4% | 23.4% | 22.2% |
| Final | 51.6% | 23.6% | 24.8% |
| Edge | -2.8% | +0.2% | +2.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.7% per unit staked (our 51.6% × 1.73 − 1).
Sturm Graz vs Ried match preview
Sturm Graz faces Ried in the Austria Bundesliga with a probability model suggesting a 46% chance of a home victory for Sturm Graz, while Ried holds a 29% chance of winning and a 25% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Sturm Graz, with expectations of over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 64%.
Recent form shows Sturm Graz with a record of L-W-L-D-W-W, while Ried has performed well with W-W-W-D-W-L. The expected goals are 1.42 for Sturm Graz and 1.73 for Ried. In their last two encounters, Sturm Graz has won both matches against Ried, indicating a favorable historical performance. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sturm Graz and Ried expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.43
Sturm Graz and Ried attack and defence ratings
Sturm Graz
Ried
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sturm Graz vs Ried markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 51.6% | 1.94 | -2.8% | 1.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 51.6% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Ried | 24.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.8% |
| No | 32.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sturm Graz win | 24.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 56.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Sturm Graz vs Ried stats
Sturm Graz and Ried recent form
| Sturm Graz |
WWLWLD |
| Ried |
WWWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sturm Graz and Ried season so far
Sturm Graz record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ried record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sturm Graz vs Ried head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Sturm Graz | Ried | Austria Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Ried | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sturm Graz vs Ried odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.4%, draw 23.4%, away 22.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 3.98 | 4.22 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 4.05 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 3.98 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.72 | 4.16 | 4.26 |
| SBO | 1.69 | 3.67 | 3.80 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .