Austria Lustenau
vs
Sturm Graz
3 – 2 Full time
| 16′ | L. Jastremski | ||
| 26′ | D. Weixelbraun | ||
| 33′ | P. Grabher | ||
| 35′ | P. Petrovic | ||
| 51′ | V. Matoshi | ||
| 54′ | L. Jastremski | ||
| 56′ | P. Petrovic | ||
| 58′ | L. Balbo | ||
| 62′ | P. GrabherD. Kacuri | ||
| 62′ | V. MatoshiB. Beganovic | ||
| 65′ | L. Jastremski | ||
| 67′ | J. Quarshie | ||
| 68′ | H. IsmailcebiogluL. Afrifa | ||
| 68′ | Danilo SoaresL. Ibertsberger | ||
| 69′ | J. HodlJ. Heil | ||
| 69′ | L. WeinhandlJ. Halwachs | ||
| 76′ | S. Diarra | ||
| 80′ | S. Seidl | ||
| 80′ | A. GashiA. Conateh | ||
| 81′ | L. JastremskiP. Benjamin | ||
| 86′ | M. Maak | ||
| 90′ | M. Mader | ||
| 90′ | O. Diakite |
Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz
| Probability | Austria Lustenau | Draw | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.6% | 13.6% | 79.8% |
| Market | 14.3% | 20.2% | 65.5% |
| Final | 12.3% | 18.6% | 69.1% |
| Edge | -1.9% | -1.6% | +3.6% |
Why Sturm Graz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.87 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sturm Graz below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.64
Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz attack and defence ratings
Austria Lustenau
Sturm Graz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz: result vs prediction
Austria Lustenau 3 – 2 Sturm Graz
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 69.1% | 1.45 | +3.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.7% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sturm Graz win | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austria Lustenau | 12.3% |
| Draw | 18.6% | |
| Sturm Graz | 69.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 30.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sturm Graz win | 60.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 20.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 10.8% |
| 0-3 | 10.4% | |
| 1-2 | 8.3% |
Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz stats
Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz recent form
| Austria Lustenau |
LLLWLW |
| Sturm Graz |
DWWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Sturm Graz | Austria Lustenau | Austria Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-25 | Sturm Graz | Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2023-08-19 | Austria Lustenau | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 0-1 |
| 2023-03-04 | Austria Lustenau | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2022-09-18 | Sturm Graz | Austria Lustenau | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2013-10-30 | Austria Lustenau | Sturm Graz | Cup | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.3%, draw 20.2%, away 65.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.63 | 4.55 | 1.41 |
| Bet365 | 6.50 | 4.75 | 1.44 |
| BetVictor | 5.25 | 3.80 | 1.33 |
| Betano | 6.60 | 4.55 | 1.44 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 4.60 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 6.40 | 4.80 | 1.41 |
| Marathonbet | 6.55 | 4.55 | 1.40 |
| Pinnacle | 7.17 | 4.75 | 1.41 |
| SBO | 5.80 | 4.21 | 1.36 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 4.20 | 1.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .