Wolfsberger AC
vs
Sturm Graz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sturm Graz
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.01.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sturm Graz is the favourite, not a value bet.
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz
| Probability | Wolfsberger AC | Draw | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.6% | 25.0% | 55.5% |
| Market | 21.5% | 22.4% | 56.1% |
| Final | 21.0% | 23.1% | 55.9% |
| Edge | -0.5% | +0.6% | -0.2% |
Why Sturm Graz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.8% per unit staked (our 55.9% × 1.72 − 1).
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz match preview
Wolfsberger AC faces Sturm Graz in the upcoming Austria Bundesliga match, with the probabilities indicating a challenging game for the home side. Wolfsberger AC has a 19% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 22%, and Sturm Graz leads with a 58% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, with expected goals of 1.01 for Wolfsberger AC and 1.82 for Sturm Graz.
Recent form shows Wolfsberger AC struggling with five consecutive losses followed by a draw, while Sturm Graz has had mixed results, including two wins in their last three matches. The model suggests a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a similar 54% chance for both teams to score, indicating a potentially high-scoring encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz attack and defence ratings
Wolfsberger AC
Sturm Graz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 55.9% | 1.79 | -0.2% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.5% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wolfsberger AC | 21.0% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Sturm Graz | 55.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% |
| No | 45.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sturm Graz win | 32.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 44.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.8% |
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz stats
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz recent form
| Wolfsberger AC |
LLLLLD |
| Sturm Graz |
DWWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz season so far
Wolfsberger AC record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Sturm Graz record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Wolfsberger AC | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Sturm Graz | Wolfsberger AC | Austria Bundesliga | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.5%, draw 22.4%, away 56.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.30 | 4.15 | 1.68 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
| Betano | 4.45 | 4.15 | 1.65 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.33 | 1.53 |
| Marathonbet | 4.33 | 4.15 | 1.66 |
| Pinnacle | 4.22 | 4.23 | 1.72 |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .