Red Bull Salzburg
vs
Austria Lustenau
Garuda Lions Prediction: Red Bull Salzburg
3 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.37 vs 1.09.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Red Bull Salzburg is the favourite, not a value bet.
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau
| Probability | Red Bull Salzburg | Draw | Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80.0% | 12.2% | 7.8% |
| Market | 79.4% | 13.2% | 7.4% |
| Final | 79.5% | 12.9% | 7.5% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -0.2% | +0.1% |
Why Red Bull Salzburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.37 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.5% per unit staked (our 79.5% × 1.20 − 1).
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau match preview
Red Bull Salzburg enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 78%, while Austria Lustenau has an 8% chance of victory. The expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg stand at 3.19, significantly higher than Austria Lustenau's 1.08. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 3-1, with an 8% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Red Bull Salzburg has recorded a mixed bag of results, with their last five matches showing two wins, two draws, and one loss. Conversely, Austria Lustenau has struggled, losing three of their last five matches, with one win and one loss. Additionally, our model indicates an 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.45
Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau attack and defence ratings
Red Bull Salzburg
Austria Lustenau
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 79.5% | 1.26 | +0.1% | 1.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.1% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.5% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Red Bull Salzburg win | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 79.5% |
| Draw | 12.9% | |
| Austria Lustenau | 7.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% |
| No | 35.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 87.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 20.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Bull Salzburg win | 63.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.7% | |
| Loss | 20.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 8.1% |
| 3-0 | 7.4% | |
| 2-1 | 7.2% |
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau stats
Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau recent form
| Red Bull Salzburg |
WDWLDW |
| Austria Lustenau |
LLLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau season so far
Red Bull Salzburg record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Austria Lustenau record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 79.4%, draw 13.2%, away 7.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.15 | 7.50 | 13.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.18 | 6.50 | 11.00 |
| Betano | 1.20 | 7.00 | 10.75 |
| Betfair | 1.15 | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.15 | 7.50 | 13.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.16 | 8.30 | 12.38 |
| William Hill | 1.18 | 7.00 | 12.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .