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Austria Bundesliga · ·Matchday 12

Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK

Garuda Lions Prediction: Austria Lustenau

2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.59.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Austria Lustenau

Planet Pure Stadion, LustenauReferee: Markus Greinecker

Austria Lustenau 41%
Draw 25%
Grazer AK 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Austria Lustenau wins
41%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
98%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
75%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
8% of simulated outcomes

Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAustria LustenauDrawGrazer AK
Model60.2%18.9%20.9%
Market34.9%26.8%38.3%
Final41.2%24.8%33.9%
Edge+6.3%-2.0%-4.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Austria Lustenau

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 1.59.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Austria Lustenau below our published probability: +6.3 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +13.4% per unit staked (our 41.2% × 2.75 − 1).

Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK match preview

Austria Lustenau will face Grazer AK in an intriguing matchup in the Austria Bundesliga. According to our model, both teams have a 38% probability of winning, with a draw at 24%. The expected goals suggest a strong attacking performance from Austria Lustenau at 2.81 compared to Grazer AK's 1.43. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Austria Lustenau, with an 8% probability.

Recent form indicates Austria Lustenau has experienced mixed results with two wins and four losses in their last six matches. In contrast, Grazer AK has struggled, recording four draws and two losses in the same period. Additionally, our model indicates an 80% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance that both teams will score.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Austria Lusten ↓ / Grazer AK → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 5% 2 5% 8% 6% 3 7% 6% 4+ 6% 9% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 80%
No goals 2%

Austria Lustenau and Grazer AK expected goals

Austria Lustenau 2.68
Grazer AK 1.59

Total expected goals: 4.27

Austria Lustenau and Grazer AK attack and defence ratings

Austria Lustenau

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 1.72 +72%

Grazer AK

Attack 0.72 -28%
Defence 1.51 +51%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Austria Bundesliga

Before and after this match

Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Austria Lustenau 41.2% 2.43 +6.3% 2.75
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 79.9% 1.25 — —
Both teams to score Yes 74.8% 1.34 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.2% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Austria Lustenau win 40.9% 2.45 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Austria Lustenau41.2%
Draw24.8%
Grazer AK33.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.579.9%
Under 2.520.1%
Both teams to scoreYes74.8%
No25.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.1%
12 (either side)75.2%
X2 (draw or away)58.8%
Handicap -1Austria Lustenau win40.9%
Push (exactly one goal)19.3%
Loss39.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.0%
3-17.1%
1-16.5%
Compare prices for this pick

Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK stats

Austria Lustenau and Grazer AK recent form

newest first
Austria Lustenau LWLLLW
Grazer AK LLDLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Austria Lustenau and Grazer AK season so far

league record

Austria Lustenau record

  • They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Grazer AK record

  • They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.

Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

2Austria Lustenau wins 2Draws 3Grazer AK wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-08Grazer AKAustria LustenauAustria Bundesliga2-1
2021-11-26Grazer AKAustria Lustenau2. Liga0-0
2021-07-25Austria LustenauGrazer AK2. Liga2-1
2021-05-12Grazer AKAustria Lustenau2. Liga2-0
2020-12-11Austria LustenauGrazer AK2. Liga3-1
2020-06-06Grazer AKAustria Lustenau2. Liga1-1
2019-08-18Austria LustenauGrazer AK2. Liga0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.9%, draw 26.8%, away 38.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.65 3.48 2.44
Bet365 2.70 3.40 2.50
BetVictor 2.63 3.50 2.40
Betano 2.70 3.45 2.45
Betfair 2.75 3.50 2.40
Dafabet 2.75 3.50 2.49
Marathonbet 2.65 3.48 2.44
Pinnacle 2.73 3.56 2.50
SBO 2.59 3.20 2.32
William Hill 2.62 3.30 2.40
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.67 ▼ -0.53
X 3.48 ▼ -0.04
2 2.44 ▲ +0.37

16 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Austria Lustenau Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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