Sturm Graz
vs
Red Bull Salzburg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Red Bull Salzburg
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.62.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Red Bull Salzburg is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg
| Probability | Sturm Graz | Draw | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.9% | 22.5% | 48.5% |
| Market | 32.0% | 23.9% | 44.1% |
| Final | 31.2% | 23.6% | 45.2% |
| Edge | -0.8% | -0.3% | +1.1% |
Why Red Bull Salzburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.62.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.0% per unit staked (our 45.2% × 2.19 − 1).
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg match preview
Sturm Graz faces Red Bull Salzburg in an intriguing Austria Bundesliga clash. The match is expected to be competitive, with our model giving Sturm Graz a 28% chance of winning compared to Red Bull Salzburg's 48%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2 in favor of Salzburg, with expected goals of 1.42 for Sturm Graz and 2.09 for Red Bull Salzburg. Recent form shows Sturm Graz with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Red Bull Salzburg has three wins, one draw, and one loss.
Both teams are likely to find the net, as our model indicates a 67% probability for both teams to score. Additionally, there is a strong expectation for over 2.5 goals, with a probability of 68%. The head-to-head record over the last 10 encounters shows Sturm Graz with 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 wins for Red Bull Salzburg, indicating a balanced rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.73
Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg attack and defence ratings
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 45.2% | 2.21 | +1.1% | 2.19 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 31.2% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 45.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.3% |
| No | 28.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Bull Salzburg win | 29.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 51.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg stats
Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg recent form
| Sturm Graz |
LDLDWW |
| Red Bull Salzburg |
LWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg season so far
Sturm Graz record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Red Bull Salzburg record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Red Bull Salzburg | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga | 3-0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Red Bull Salzburg | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg | Austria Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg | Austria Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Red Bull Salzburg | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2025-05-09 | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga | 4-2 |
| 2025-04-13 | Red Bull Salzburg | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-02 | Red Bull Salzburg | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 3-1 |
| 2024-10-06 | Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg | Bundesliga | 5-0 |
| 2024-04-28 | Red Bull Salzburg | Sturm Graz | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.0%, draw 23.9%, away 44.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.93 | 3.86 | 2.13 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 4.00 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.90 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.85 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.90 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.14 |
| Marathonbet | 2.92 | 3.86 | 2.11 |
| Pinnacle | 2.91 | 4.05 | 2.19 |
| SBO | 2.71 | 3.52 | 2.09 |
| William Hill | 2.88 | 3.75 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .