Ried
vs
Lask Linz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lask Linz
2 – 3 Predicted score · 5% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lask Linz is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ried vs Lask Linz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ried vs Lask Linz
| Probability | Ried | Draw | Lask Linz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.8% | 17.5% | 41.7% |
| Market | 16.7% | 20.1% | 63.2% |
| Final | 22.7% | 19.4% | 57.8% |
| Edge | +6.0% | -0.6% | -5.4% |
Why Lask Linz
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.1% per unit staked (our 57.8% × 1.52 − 1).
Ried vs Lask Linz match preview
In the upcoming match between Ried and Lask Linz, the probabilities indicate a strong advantage for Lask Linz, with a 55% chance of winning compared to Ried's 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-3, reflecting an expectation of a high-scoring game, with over 2.5 goals projected at 94% and both teams to score at 90%. Expected goals are calculated at 3.24 for Ried and 2.70 for Lask Linz.
Recent form shows Ried with a mixed record of D-L-D-W-W-W, while Lask Linz has a more fluctuating performance with W-W-L-W-W-L. In their last 10 encounters, Ried has secured 2 wins, Lask Linz has 3 wins, and there have been 5 draws. The confidence grade for this match stands at C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ried and Lask Linz expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.78
Ried and Lask Linz attack and defence ratings
Ried
Lask Linz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ried vs Lask Linz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lask Linz | 57.8% | 1.73 | -5.4% | 1.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 92.8% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 89.5% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.3% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ried | 22.7% |
| Draw | 19.4% | |
| Lask Linz | 57.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 92.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 7.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 89.5% |
| No | 10.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lask Linz win | 26.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.3% | |
| Loss | 58.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 5.4% |
| 2-3 | 5.2% | |
| 3-2 | 5.2% |
Ried vs Lask Linz stats
Ried and Lask Linz recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ried and Lask Linz season so far
Ried record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lask Linz record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ried vs Lask Linz head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | Lask Linz | Ried | Austria Cup | 5-4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Lask Linz | Ried | Austria Bundesliga | 4-1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Ried | Lask Linz | Austria Cup | 1-2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Ried | Lask Linz | Austria Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Lask Linz | Ried | Austria Bundesliga | 1-3 |
| 2025-03-21 | Lask Linz | Ried | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-18 | Ried | Lask Linz | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2022-09-04 | Lask Linz | Ried | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2022-05-14 | Ried | Lask Linz | Bundesliga | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-02 | Lask Linz | Ried | Bundesliga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ried vs Lask Linz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.7%, draw 20.1%, away 63.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.57 | 4.65 | 1.48 |
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| BetVictor | 5.75 | 4.60 | 1.45 |
| Betano | 5.80 | 4.55 | 1.47 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.75 | 1.47 |
| Dafabet | 5.40 | 4.80 | 1.52 |
| Marathonbet | 5.55 | 4.65 | 1.47 |
| Pinnacle | 5.63 | 4.80 | 1.50 |
| SBO | 5.13 | 4.31 | 1.43 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 4.40 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .