Grazer AK
vs
TSV Hartberg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Grazer AK
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Grazer AK is the favourite, not a value bet.
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg
| Probability | Grazer AK | Draw | TSV Hartberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.3% | 22.9% | 44.8% |
| Market | 45.9% | 26.6% | 27.4% |
| Final | 42.5% | 25.7% | 31.8% |
| Edge | -3.4% | -0.9% | +4.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.2% per unit staked (our 42.5% × 2.16 − 1).
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg match preview
Grazer AK faces TSV Hartberg in an intriguing matchup where Grazer AK holds a 46% probability of winning, while TSV Hartberg has a 30% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.97 for Grazer AK and 2.21 for TSV Hartberg. Both teams show a strong tendency to score, with the model suggesting a 77% likelihood that both will find the net.
Recent form indicates that Grazer AK has struggled slightly, recording one win in their last six matches (L-D-D-W-W-D), while TSV Hartberg has fared better with four wins in their last six (L-W-D-D-W-W). In their last two encounters, Grazer AK has yet to secure a victory, with one draw and one loss to TSV Hartberg.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.74
Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg attack and defence ratings
Grazer AK
TSV Hartberg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grazer AK | 42.5% | 2.35 | -3.4% | 2.16 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grazer AK | 42.5% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| TSV Hartberg | 31.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.0% |
| No | 28.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Grazer AK win | 16.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.8% | |
| Loss | 67.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.1% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg stats
Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg recent form
| Grazer AK |
DLDDWW |
| TSV Hartberg |
WLWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg season so far
Grazer AK record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
TSV Hartberg record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | TSV Hartberg | Grazer AK | Austria Bundesliga | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Grazer AK | TSV Hartberg | Austria Bundesliga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.9%, draw 26.6%, away 27.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.05 | 3.46 | 3.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.50 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.01 | 3.65 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.03 | 3.46 | 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 2.16 | 3.42 | 3.39 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .