TSV Hartberg
vs
Wolfsberger AC
Garuda Lions Prediction: TSV Hartberg
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 1.44.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC
| Probability | TSV Hartberg | Draw | Wolfsberger AC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.8% | 17.8% | 17.3% |
| Market | 43.6% | 26.2% | 30.2% |
| Final | 48.9% | 24.1% | 27.0% |
| Edge | +5.3% | -2.1% | -3.2% |
Why TSV Hartberg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 1.44.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices TSV Hartberg below our published probability: +5.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.5% per unit staked (our 48.9% × 2.20 − 1).
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC match preview
TSV Hartberg is expected to have the upper hand against Wolfsberger AC in their upcoming match, with a 47% probability of winning compared to 30% for Wolfsberger AC. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Hartberg, supported by an expected goals figure of 2.78 for Hartberg and 1.44 for Wolfsberger AC. Additionally, there is a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 79%, and both teams scoring at 72%.
Recent form highlights a stark contrast between the two teams, with Hartberg recording two wins and two draws in their last five matches, while Wolfsberger AC has struggled, losing four of their last five games. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Hartberg has secured one win and one draw, further indicating their current advantage.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.22
TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC attack and defence ratings
TSV Hartberg
Wolfsberger AC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | TSV Hartberg | 48.9% | 2.05 | +5.3% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | TSV Hartberg win | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | TSV Hartberg | 48.9% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Wolfsberger AC | 27.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.3% |
| No | 27.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | TSV Hartberg win | 45.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 35.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.2% |
| 3-1 | 7.6% | |
| 1-1 | 6.5% |
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC stats
TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC recent form
| TSV Hartberg |
LWDDWW |
| Wolfsberger AC |
LLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC season so far
TSV Hartberg record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wolfsberger AC record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | Wolfsberger AC | TSV Hartberg | Austria Bundesliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-20 | TSV Hartberg | Wolfsberger AC | Austria Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-01 | Wolfsberger AC | TSV Hartberg | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-01 | TSV Hartberg | Wolfsberger AC | Bundesliga | 0-3 |
| 2024-10-05 | Wolfsberger AC | TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga | 2-3 |
| 2023-12-10 | TSV Hartberg | Wolfsberger AC | Bundesliga | 2-0 |
| 2023-09-02 | Wolfsberger AC | TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga | 0-3 |
| 2023-05-20 | TSV Hartberg | Wolfsberger AC | Bundesliga | 0-2 |
| 2023-04-21 | Wolfsberger AC | TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga | 2-2 |
| 2023-03-04 | TSV Hartberg | Wolfsberger AC | Bundesliga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.6%, draw 26.3%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.13 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.18 | 3.65 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.13 | 3.50 | 3.12 |
| Pinnacle | 2.15 | 3.57 | 3.27 |
| SBO | 2.14 | 3.21 | 2.85 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .