Lask Linz
vs
Red Bull Salzburg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lask Linz
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lask Linz is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg
| Probability | Lask Linz | Draw | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.4% | 22.1% | 41.5% |
| Market | 43.1% | 24.6% | 32.3% |
| Final | 41.4% | 24.0% | 34.6% |
| Edge | -1.7% | -0.6% | +2.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (our 41.4% × 2.20 − 1).
Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg match preview
Lask Linz faces Red Bull Salzburg in an intriguing Austria Bundesliga clash. According to our model, Lask Linz has a 41% chance of winning, while Red Bull Salzburg stands at 35%, with a 24% probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Lask Linz, with an expected goals tally of 1.74 for Lask Linz and 2.01 for Red Bull Salzburg. Both teams have a 72% probability of scoring, and there is a 72% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Lask Linz has struggled with a record of W-L-L-D-L-L, while Red Bull Salzburg has shown more consistency with W-L-D-W-W-D. The head-to-head record in the last four encounters is evenly matched, with both teams securing two wins each. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.02
Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg attack and defence ratings
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lask Linz | 41.4% | 2.41 | -1.7% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lask Linz | 41.4% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 34.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75.7% |
| No | 24.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lask Linz win | 19.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.5% | |
| Loss | 63.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.0% |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg stats
Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg recent form
| Lask Linz |
WWLLDL |
| Red Bull Salzburg |
DWLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg season so far
Lask Linz record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Red Bull Salzburg record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Lask Linz | Red Bull Salzburg | Austria Bundesliga | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Red Bull Salzburg | Lask Linz | Austria Bundesliga | 2-3 |
| 2026-02-22 | Lask Linz | Red Bull Salzburg | Austria Bundesliga | 1-5 |
| 2025-08-23 | Red Bull Salzburg | Lask Linz | Austria Bundesliga | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.2%, draw 24.6%, away 32.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.78 | 2.91 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.80 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.85 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 4.00 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.20 | 4.00 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.15 | 3.78 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.94 | 2.96 |
| SBO | 2.06 | 3.57 | 2.76 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .