Celje
vs
Red Bull Salzburg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Red Bull Salzburg
0 β 1 Predicted score Β· 14% model probability
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg
| Probability | Celje | Draw | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.3% | 23.7% | 64.0% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 12.3% | 23.7% | 64.0% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why Red Bull Salzburg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg match preview
Celje faces Red Bull Salzburg in the UEFA Europa League with a significant disparity in form and expected performance. Celje has recorded a recent run of D-L-L-L-W-L, while Red Bull Salzburg boasts a strong W-W-D-W-W-W streak. According to our model, Celje has a 12% chance of winning, with a 24% probability of a draw, and Red Bull Salzburg at 64%. The expected goals for Celje stand at 0.69, compared to 1.85 for Salzburg.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with a 14% probability. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams are expected to score at a rate of 43%. This matchup highlights the challenges Celje may face against a dominant Salzburg side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Celje and Red Bull Salzburg expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Celje and Red Bull Salzburg attack and defence ratings
Celje
Red Bull Salzburg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 64.0% | 1.56 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.0% | 1.76 | β | β |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.7% | 1.14 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Red Bull Salzburg win | 38.9% | 2.57 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celje | 12.3% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 64.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.0% |
| No | 57.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Bull Salzburg win | 38.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 36.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 13.6% |
| 0-2 | 13.5% | |
| 1-1 | 11.1% |
Celje vs Red Bull Salzburg stats
Celje and Red Bull Salzburg recent form
| Celje |
DLLLWL |
| Red Bull Salzburg |
WWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.