Olimpija Ljubljana
vs
Celje
Garuda Lions Prediction: Olimpija Ljubljana
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.69.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje
| Probability | Olimpija Ljubljana | Draw | Celje |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.7% | 29.9% | 17.4% |
| Market | 37.0% | 27.5% | 35.5% |
| Final | 40.9% | 28.1% | 31.0% |
| Edge | +3.9% | +0.6% | -4.5% |
Why Olimpija Ljubljana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Olimpija Ljubljana below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.5% per unit staked (our 40.9% × 2.65 − 1).
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje match preview
Olimpija Ljubljana is set to face Celje in their upcoming match, with a probability of 40% for a home victory, while Celje has a 32% chance of winning and a 28% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Olimpija Ljubljana stand at 1.33, compared to Celje's 0.61, indicating a potential advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, with a probability of 18%.
In terms of recent form, Olimpija Ljubljana has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Celje has struggled, managing just one win alongside three draws and one loss. Historically, in their last five encounters, Olimpija Ljubljana has secured one win, with Celje winning three times and one match ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Olimpija Ljubljana and Celje expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.09
Olimpija Ljubljana and Celje attack and defence ratings
Olimpija Ljubljana
Celje
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 40.9% | 2.44 | +3.9% | 2.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.3% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 40.9% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Celje | 31.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.9% |
| No | 61.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Olimpija Ljubljana win | 26.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 47.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.1% |
| 0-0 | 13.5% | |
| 1-1 | 13.2% |
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje stats
Olimpija Ljubljana and Celje recent form
| Olimpija Ljubljana |
WDLWWD |
| Celje |
DDLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Olimpija Ljubljana and Celje season so far
Olimpija Ljubljana record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celje record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Celje | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Celje | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL | 2-0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Celje | 1. SNL | 3-1 |
| 2025-12-04 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Celje | Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Celje | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-03 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Celje | 1. SNL | 0-5 |
| 2025-04-27 | Celje | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL | 3-3 |
| 2025-04-24 | Celje | Olimpija Ljubljana | Cup | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-02 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Celje | 1. SNL | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-03 | Celje | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Celje odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.7%, draw 27.3%, away 36.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.65 | 3.28 | 2.29 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.35 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.44 | 3.45 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.44 | 3.30 | 2.47 |
| Pinnacle | 2.53 | 3.49 | 2.61 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .