Garuda Lions
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1. SNL · Full time ·Matchday 12

Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana

0 – 1 Full time

13′B. Osuji
13′I. Tuci
43′M. Boben
46′A. BekavacD. Zajsek
46′H. SorensenI. Svrznjak
50′J. Urbancic
59′V. Tezak
61′M. Cuni
68′D. Kojic
72′D. MitrovskiL. Perea
72′R. RamsakM. Bajraj
72′P. PetriskoM. Mladenovic
74′D. Simunic
81′T. JagicA. Bloudek
90′L. Perea

Sportni park Aluminij, KidricevoReferee: D. Halilovic

Aluminij 28%
Draw 27%
Olimpija Ljubljana 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAluminijDrawOlimpija Ljubljana
Model36.7%29.7%33.6%
Market24.8%26.1%49.1%
Final27.7%27.0%45.2%
Edge+3.0%+0.9%-3.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Olimpija Ljubljana

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Aluminij ↓ / Olimpija Ljubl → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 9% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 10%

Aluminij and Olimpija Ljubljana expected goals

Aluminij 1.27
Olimpija Ljubljana 1.21

Total expected goals: 2.47

Aluminij and Olimpija Ljubljana attack and defence ratings

Aluminij

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Olimpija Ljubljana

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana: result vs prediction

Aluminij 0 – 1 Olimpija Ljubljana

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

1. SNL

Before and after this match

Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Olimpija Ljubljana 45.2% 2.21 -3.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.0% 1.82 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.6% 1.94 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.0% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 66.4% 1.51 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Aluminij27.7%
Draw27.0%
Olimpija Ljubljana45.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.0%
Under 2.555.0%
Both teams to scoreYes51.6%
No48.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)54.8%
12 (either side)73.0%
X2 (draw or away)72.3%
Handicap -1Olimpija Ljubljana win14.7%
Push (exactly one goal)18.9%
Loss66.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.2%
0-09.7%
1-09.4%

Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana stats

Aluminij and Olimpija Ljubljana recent form

newest first
Aluminij LDWDLL
Olimpija Ljubljana DLWWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Aluminij and Olimpija Ljubljana going into this match

league record before kick-off

Aluminij record

  • They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.

Olimpija Ljubljana record

  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0Aluminij wins 2Draws 8Olimpija Ljubljana wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-02Olimpija LjubljanaAluminij1. SNL1-0
2026-04-11Olimpija LjubljanaAluminij1. SNL2-1
2026-02-05AluminijOlimpija Ljubljana1. SNL1-2
2025-10-03Olimpija LjubljanaAluminij1. SNL1-1
2025-07-26AluminijOlimpija Ljubljana1. SNL0-3
2024-04-20Olimpija LjubljanaAluminij1. SNL5-0
2024-02-24AluminijOlimpija Ljubljana1. SNL0-4
2023-10-29Olimpija LjubljanaAluminij1. SNL0-0
2023-08-19AluminijOlimpija Ljubljana1. SNL4-5
2023-04-26Olimpija LjubljanaAluminijCup2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 24.8%, draw 26.1%, away 49.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.68 3.44 1.84
Bet365 3.75 3.50 1.85
BetVictor 3.70 3.50 1.85
Betano 3.65 3.45 1.95
Betfair 3.60 3.50 1.85
Dafabet 3.75 3.50 1.94
Marathonbet 3.60 3.44 1.82
Pinnacle 3.85 3.61 1.94
SBO 3.42 3.16 1.85
William Hill 3.50 3.30 1.91

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.67 ▼ -0.29
X 3.48 ▼ -0.02
2 1.85 ▲ +0.02

10 snapshots recorded, from .