Aluminij
vs
Olimpija Ljubljana
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aluminij
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana
| Probability | Aluminij | Draw | Olimpija Ljubljana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.9% | 31.0% | 30.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 38.9% | 31.0% | 30.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana match preview
Aluminij faces Olimpija Ljubljana in their upcoming match, with Aluminij holding a 39% probability of winning, while Olimpija Ljubljana has a 30% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Aluminij, with an 11% likelihood. Expected goals for Aluminij stand at 1.23, compared to 1.06 for Olimpija Ljubljana, indicating a slightly stronger offensive performance from Aluminij.
In terms of recent form, Aluminij has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Olimpija Ljubljana has achieved two wins, two draws, and one loss. Historically, the head-to-head record shows Aluminij has not won any of their last five encounters against Olimpija Ljubljana, with four losses and one draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aluminij and Olimpija Ljubljana expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.29
Aluminij and Olimpija Ljubljana attack and defence ratings
Aluminij
Olimpija Ljubljana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aluminij | 38.9% | 2.57 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aluminij | 38.9% |
| Draw | 31.0% | |
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 30.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.5% |
| No | 52.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aluminij win | 17.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 61.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 11.5% | |
| 1-0 | 11.2% |
Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana stats
Aluminij and Olimpija Ljubljana recent form
| Aluminij |
DWDLWW |
| Olimpija Ljubljana |
LWWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aluminij and Olimpija Ljubljana season so far
Aluminij record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
Olimpija Ljubljana record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aluminij vs Olimpija Ljubljana head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Aluminij | 1. SNL | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Aluminij | 1. SNL | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Aluminij | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-03 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Aluminij | 1. SNL | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Aluminij | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.