Nafta
vs
Aluminij
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nafta
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Nafta is the favourite, not a value bet.
Nafta vs Aluminij overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nafta vs Aluminij
| Probability | Nafta | Draw | Aluminij |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.1% | 31.5% | 28.4% |
| Market | 38.7% | 26.5% | 34.7% |
| Final | 39.1% | 27.8% | 33.1% |
| Edge | +0.3% | +1.2% | -1.6% |
Why Nafta
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (our 39.1% × 2.40 − 1).
Nafta vs Aluminij match preview
Nafta faces Aluminij in the upcoming 1. SNL match, with a 40% probability of a Nafta victory according to our model. The likelihood of a draw stands at 32%, while Aluminij has a 28% chance of winning. The most probable scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Nafta, with an expected goals tally of 1.22 for Nafta and 0.98 for Aluminij.
Both teams' recent form shows Nafta with a mixed record of D-W-L-W-W-L, while Aluminij has struggled, recording L-L-D-W-D-L. The probability of over 2.5 goals in the match is 38%, and there is a 45% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nafta and Aluminij expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.20
Nafta and Aluminij attack and defence ratings
Nafta
Aluminij
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nafta vs Aluminij markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nafta | 39.1% | 2.56 | +0.3% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nafta | 39.1% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Aluminij | 33.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.4% |
| No | 54.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nafta win | 18.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 59.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 12.4% | |
| 1-0 | 12.1% |
Nafta vs Aluminij stats
Nafta and Aluminij recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nafta and Aluminij season so far
Nafta record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aluminij record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 12 matches.
Nafta vs Aluminij head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Aluminij | Nafta | 1. SNL | 1-1 |
| 2023-03-17 | Aluminij | Nafta | 2. SNL | 1-1 |
| 2022-09-04 | Nafta | Aluminij | 2. SNL | 1-3 |
| 2021-06-30 | Aluminij | Nafta | Friendlies Clubs | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nafta vs Aluminij odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.7%, draw 26.5%, away 34.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.33 | 3.36 | 2.55 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.50 | 2.72 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.31 | 3.55 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.33 | 3.36 | 2.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.33 | 3.73 | 2.71 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .