Celje
vs
Nafta
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nafta
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Celje vs Nafta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Celje vs Nafta
| Probability | Celje | Draw | Nafta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.1% | 33.6% | 38.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.1% | 33.6% | 38.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nafta
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Celje vs Nafta match preview
Celje faces Nafta in the upcoming 1. SNL match, with the probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Our model gives Celje a 28% chance of winning, while Nafta has a slightly higher probability at 38%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1 in favor of Nafta, with a 14% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Celje will score 0.89, while Nafta is projected to net 1.08.
In terms of recent form, Celje has recorded two draws, one win, and two losses in their last five matches, while Nafta has seen better results with two wins, one loss, and two draws in the same timeframe. Additionally, there is a 40% chance that both teams will score, and the probability for over 2.5 goals stands at 31%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Celje and Nafta expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.97
Celje and Nafta attack and defence ratings
Celje
Nafta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Celje vs Nafta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nafta | 38.2% | 2.61 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celje | 28.1% |
| Draw | 33.6% | |
| Nafta | 38.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.2% |
| No | 59.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nafta win | 16.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 61.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.3% |
| 1-1 | 14.7% | |
| 0-1 | 13.8% |
Celje vs Nafta stats
Celje and Nafta recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Celje and Nafta season so far
Celje record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nafta record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celje vs Nafta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Nafta | Celje | 1. SNL | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.