Nafta
vs
Olimpija Ljubljana
Garuda Lions Prediction: Olimpija Ljubljana
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.85.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Olimpija Ljubljana is the favourite, not a value bet.
Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana
| Probability | Nafta | Draw | Olimpija Ljubljana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.3% | 32.8% | 41.9% |
| Market | 23.2% | 26.0% | 50.9% |
| Final | 23.7% | 27.7% | 48.6% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +1.7% | -2.2% |
Why Olimpija Ljubljana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.5% per unit staked (our 48.6% × 1.88 − 1).
Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana match preview
In the upcoming match between Nafta and Olimpija Ljubljana, the probabilities indicate a stronger likelihood for Olimpija Ljubljana, with a 48% chance of winning compared to Nafta's 24%. The most probable scoreline suggested by the model is 0-1, occurring with a 14% likelihood. Nafta's recent form shows a mixed bag of results, including two draws and a win in their last five matches, while Olimpija Ljubljana has been more consistent, with three wins and two draws in their recent outings.
The expected goals for Nafta stand at 0.85, while Olimpija Ljubljana is projected to score 1.17 goals. The model also suggests a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% probability that both teams will score. Historically, Nafta has struggled against Olimpija Ljubljana, with no wins in their last seven encounters, including six losses.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nafta and Olimpija Ljubljana expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.01
Nafta and Olimpija Ljubljana attack and defence ratings
Nafta
Olimpija Ljubljana
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 48.6% | 2.06 | -2.2% | 1.88 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nafta | 23.7% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 48.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.6% |
| No | 59.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Olimpija Ljubljana win | 18.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 58.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 14.7% |
| 1-1 | 14.5% | |
| 0-1 | 14.3% |
Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana stats
Nafta and Olimpija Ljubljana recent form
| Nafta |
LDDWLW |
| Olimpija Ljubljana |
WDWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nafta and Olimpija Ljubljana season so far
Nafta record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Olimpija Ljubljana record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Nafta | 1. SNL | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Nafta | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-16 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Nafta | 1. SNL | 3-0 |
| 2024-10-19 | Nafta | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-05 | Olimpija Ljubljana | Nafta | 1. SNL | 2-0 |
| 2023-03-08 | Nafta | Olimpija Ljubljana | Cup | 1-3 |
| 2021-04-28 | Nafta | Olimpija Ljubljana | Cup | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nafta vs Olimpija Ljubljana odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.2%, draw 26.0%, away 50.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.99 | 3.52 | 1.75 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.75 | 1.70 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 3.85 | 3.50 | 1.88 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.87 |
| Marathonbet | 3.90 | 3.52 | 1.73 |
| Pinnacle | 4.25 | 3.75 | 1.83 |
| SBO | 3.59 | 3.23 | 1.79 |
| William Hill | 3.90 | 3.40 | 1.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .