Brinje-Grosuplje
vs
Aluminij
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aluminij
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.85.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij
| Probability | Brinje-Grosuplje | Draw | Aluminij |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.9% | 26.7% | 55.5% |
| Market | 38.2% | 28.7% | 33.1% |
| Final | 33.1% | 28.2% | 38.7% |
| Edge | -5.1% | -0.5% | +5.6% |
Why Aluminij
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Aluminij below our published probability: +5.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.93, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +13.3% per unit staked (our 38.7% × 2.93 − 1).
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij match preview
Brinje-Grosuplje will face Aluminij in their upcoming match, with the probabilities indicating a strong likelihood of an Aluminij victory at 56%. The expected goals for Brinje-Grosuplje stand at 0.84, while Aluminij is projected to score 1.66 goals. The most likely scoreline from our model suggests a narrow 0-1 win for Aluminij, which has a 12% probability.
In terms of recent form, Brinje-Grosuplje has recorded two draws and four losses in their last six matches, while Aluminij has achieved two wins, two draws, and two losses in the same timeframe. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 46%, and both teams scoring stands at 47%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Brinje-Grosuplje and Aluminij expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
Brinje-Grosuplje and Aluminij attack and defence ratings
Brinje-Grosuplje
Aluminij
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aluminij | 38.7% | 2.59 | +5.6% | 2.93 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.5% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 33.1% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Aluminij | 38.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.3% |
| No | 52.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aluminij win | 31.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 44.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 0-1 | 12.4% | |
| 0-2 | 11.2% |
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij stats
Brinje-Grosuplje and Aluminij recent form
| Brinje-Grosuplje |
DDLLWL |
| Aluminij |
WDLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Brinje-Grosuplje and Aluminij season so far
Brinje-Grosuplje record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
Aluminij record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 13 matches.
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Aluminij | Brinje-Grosuplje | 1. SNL | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Aluminij odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.2%, draw 28.7%, away 33.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.12 | 2.70 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.15 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.41 | 3.20 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.34 | 3.12 | 2.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.44 | 3.23 | 2.93 |
| SBO | 2.23 | 2.93 | 2.62 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .